26.0096% Snowier Winters at Tremblant?

26.0096% Snowier Winters at Tremblant?

It Is A Fact…

5 out the last 6 winters at Tremblant have been an aggregate 26.0096% snowier than the 21 year average of the annual natural snowfall statistics recorded and publicly available at Tremblant.ca.(*)

(Please Note: 1) Annotations symbols added to text have legend/explanations attached below at page bottom. 2) Click on images for expanded views, use browser “Back” button to return to article.)

2018-6-year-snowfall-stats-graph-aWe have written about this snowy fact in an article in our “Tremblant Geographic” Forum section, entitled “A Tale Of Two(or more) Winters 2017, 2018”. In that article we analyze the winters of 2016/17 and 2017/18 as only two examples of these seemingly more common above average natural snowfall accumulations, based on 21 years of recorded snowfall stat’s.

We have a theory(%) that could be one possible explanation or understanding for this phenomenon and the following is an excerpt from that article.

———- Excerpt Begins ———————–

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“Coincidence” or “Trend”?

Our “Trend” theory is that as Global Warming may be causing a
slight increase in average temps, this may actually be bringing
Tremblant up into Mother Natures own best natural snow making
temps at roughly -7C(+/- 3C), more frequently(+). Furthermore,
at regionally critical tipping points at or around the freezing mark,
Tremblant also seems to remain favourably on the lower temp
sub-zero range more frequently. We think this may be resulting in
a higher consistency of thermal-free days when compared to it’s
regional peers at slightly lower, more southerly latitudes.(#)

This is not the first time we’ve reported on these observations
or our theoretical attempt at understanding them. The fact remains
that the experience of the past 6 winters are snowfall measurements
that are a matter of record.

We think this could develop into a more statistically supportable
trend of snowier Tremblant winters, and that over time these
near or over 500cm”+” snowfall winters could become more
common?(^^) If that trend was to become the case, the benefits would
include far higher probabilities of the most desirable winter qualities
for pre-booked Alpine Snow Sport vacations and/or Seasons Pass
holders.

Examinations of our daily archives will show that there is optimized
quality virtually every single day the Mountain is open, regardless of
any seasons individual snowfall, or weather cycles. However, there is
no doubt that the added mechanical advantage of abundant natural
snow, especially if it becomes a statistical trend, facilitates an easy
elevation to levels of extraordinary quality.

Initial indications from preliminary Fall of 2018 long range winter weather
forecasts are also suggesting the Southern Quebec region of Eastern
North America may experience another season of above average snowfall.

———- End of excerpt —————-

Any and all chances that you could do more of this(see below Pic’s.), Across All Skill Levels from Beginners to Experts… for any longer potential timeframes and/or with higher probability of quality, quantity, i.e., genuine, real “Winter”, is a significant asset for reliable Ski Season visits or Ski/Snowboard holiday planning, and we respectfully submit that is a distinct advantage for choosing Tremblant.

(Top pic. below is Tremblant Versant Sud, South Side Black Diamond, “McCulloch”, second below is Versant Sud, South Side “Nansen”,  a 6 kilometre Green Circle masterpiece of learning/cruising excellence dating back to 1939.)

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We will be doing a full-on Fall 2018 Long Range Tremblant Ski Season Weather Forecast in the near future. You can scroll through/review our two previous seasonal Ski Season Forecasts in the “Tremblant Geographic” section of our T360 Forums and compare them to the actual history to see how close we’ve been. So far, we’re happy to report the evidence has shown our forecasts to be correct(**), and as mentioned above, there is already a growing consensus of Meteorological evidence supporting yet another above average snowfall winter is coming up at #Tremblant for this new season approaching.1-4-18-sud-south-nansen-immaculate-smooth-sweet-easy-snow-d

Annotations: (*) and the sixth was only 8.173% below. (%) Even though there is substantial positive support evidence, theories have variable inherent risk of being proven wrong, so we accept that possibility. This is one reason we use the subtitle “Trend or Coincidence?” (+) Not nearly as much snow falls when it’s really cold, however, the benefit of the cold is to increase the depth of the frost level into the Mountain, which acts as an offsetting stored refrigerant when any normally occurring winter thaws happen. (#) For example, by recorded Meteorological Statistics, Killington Vermont now only has 1 month per year when the average daily temperature is below 32 degrees F., Zero degrees C, which is January. Tremblant has three sub-zero C months, December, January, and February. Our hypothesis is that there are significant benefits to consistent snow surface quality, stability, retention, ease of all skill level performance and seasonal durability, of 3 X more average sub-zero C, genuine winter days. (^^) We had our research data run through an Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Test on SNOWFALL by a T360 fan who happens to be a University Professor that is a Peer Reviewed Research Author, published in multiple journals including “The Economist”, and the test conclusion was deemed “Statistically Significant”. Merci SC! (**)Caveat: Anyone who talks or reads about Weather Forecasting needs to acknowledge the future is subject to the whims of Mother Nature that are not always or completely predictable. This is another reason we use the subtitle “Trend or Coincidence?” It is also why we specifically state that regardless of any years snowfall total, large or not so large, Tremblant Mountain Crews are masters of optimization.

 

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