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 Post subject: Early Weather Forecasts for Winter 2016/17
 Post Posted: Sat Sep 17, 2016 10:39 pm 
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Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2008 2:53 pm
Posts: 2092
Location: Canada
Editors Note: This topic Post-Season updated with “Reply”
posted below with supporting data we had archived previously, but
not added. In retrospect, we think we got this call predicting 2016/17
winter conditions at Tremblant very closely as the actual snowfall records
show. We look forward to continuing future Winter Season Advance
Forecasting with a similar approach to multi-source, Venn Diagram-Style,
“Composite” predictive probabilities.

------- ----------- ----------- --------- -------

2016/17 Winter Pre-Season Weather Forecasting Models.

For reasons we explain below, including our interview with
Janice Stillman, the Editor of the "Old Farmers Almanac", we think
there is good potential for a “Super-Season” Winter Combination of
Natural Snowfall and Supporting Temperatures for Tremblant.


Attachment:
File comment: www.tremblant360.com photo. All rights reserved.
2.14.13.Lac.Tremblant.Sky.Drama.Panoramic.d.jpg
2.14.13.Lac.Tremblant.Sky.Drama.Panoramic.d.jpg [ 282.4 KiB | Viewed 3922 times ]


Introduction:

The term “Silly Season” has come to broadly represent a period
of time for a Sport that precedes the actual performance season,
with a lot of anticipatory news that tends to be very full of speculation,
conjecture, opinion, and “Hunches”, that may have far less certainty
than the inevitability implied by the forecasters.

When it comes to weather forecasting a whole winter’s worth of alleged
detail, some might say that is the “Silly Season” for Skiers. At the very
least, there would typically be a healthy component of scepticism,
because there’s a lot of experience that suggests very long term Weather
Forecasting is not always reliable.

That all said though, it does not stop many serious weather
model creators from going on at extensive length about EXACTLY
how they have determined the next winter is going to go.

Specific Weather Forecast Models For The 2016/17 Winter:

This Fall Season of 2016 is no different and since June 2016, forecasters
have been quite consistent across their profession, forecasting this coming
winter could be colder and snowier than average for the North-East Coast
of North America due to a “La Nina” effect from moving water currents in the
equatorial Pacific Ocean. These water currents and their inherent temperatures,
influence the air masses overhead, ultimately shaping the westerly origins
of the Jet Stream that more-or-less acts as a conveyor belt as it swings over
northern arctic zones, picking up very cold polar air on it’s path eastward.

You can find multiple references in theses pages to N.O.A.A., one of the significant
Weather Offices of the U.S. Government. N.O.A.A. stands for “National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, and as the name suggests, they are quite focused
on the relationship between the worlds Oceans and the resultant Weather Patterns.

Attachment:
File comment: Screenshot Courtesy of N.O.A.A.
Screen Shot 2016-09-15 at 1.53.21 PM.jpg
Screen Shot 2016-09-15 at 1.53.21 PM.jpg [ 301.99 KiB | Viewed 3965 times ]


In the above graphic, the combination of Cold Polar Jet Stream Air Masses with
very high moisture level Pacific Jet Stream air masses over central North
America, has a very high probability of condensing snow precipitation over
a roughly Sou-west to Nor-east linear pathway, especially when combined
with Precipitation Models below. Great potential for Tremblant Ski/Board
trip planers.


Precipitation Only Weather Model:
Attachment:
File comment: Screenshot Courtesy of N.O.A.A.
Screen Shot 2016-09-15 at 1.54.39 PM.jpg
Screen Shot 2016-09-15 at 1.54.39 PM.jpg [ 267.81 KiB | Viewed 3965 times ]


It should be noted that the prevailing wind direction on a regionally
localized basis is from the South-West, so there may be some probability
that the lower Great Lakes basin, which by N.O.A.A. calculations, is going
to see a higher than average snowfall, will originate Winter Snow Storm
Systems that will flow Nor-Eastward as far as Tremblant. Reading through our
Mountain Conditions Archive, readers will recognize this South-West Flow
Pattern as a frequently occurring source of abundant natural snowfall.


Precipitation Only Weather Model:
Attachment:
File comment: Screenshot Courtesy of N.O.A.A.
Screen Shot 2016-09-15 at 1.55.25 PM.jpg
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AccuWeather.Inc., is another forecaster that likes to make long range projections
and what we like about this one is the similar opinion to N.O.A.A. in that the
North East portion of the continent is going to have a cold and snowy ambiance
that they suggest will be colder and snowier than average.

Good thing it’s a Ski Resort...

Combined Precipitation/Temperature Model:
Attachment:
File comment: Screenshot Courtesy of AccuWeather Inc.
Screen Shot 2016-07-28 at 10.43.46 PM.jpg
Screen Shot 2016-07-28 at 10.43.46 PM.jpg [ 598.46 KiB | Viewed 3965 times ]


Connecting the dots with/from AccuWeather...

One of the oldest weather forecast sources is The Old Farmers Almanac.

For 225 years this venerable publication has made seasonal predictions
based on their proprietary methodology. Over the centuries, and over
recent decades, their forecast models have become more sophisticated.
In addition to over 2.25 CENTURIES of historical observations of
reoccurring weather patterns that are good indicators of future weather
behaviours, we see that they are also blending in data from AccuWeather.Inc.,
which we think certainly enhances the overall probability of correctness for
their projections.

Here is The Old Farmers Almanac 2016-17, Canadian Winter Weather Map.

Combined Precipitation/Temperature Model:
Attachment:
File comment: Downloadable Winter 2016-17 Weather Map PDF, Courtesy of Old Farmers Almanac, Janice Stillman Editor.
Screen Shot 2016-11-03 at 10.56.54 AM.jpg
Screen Shot 2016-11-03 at 10.56.54 AM.jpg [ 838.45 KiB | Viewed 3900 times ]


The Old farmers Almanac differs from AccuWeather in that the Almanac sees
a warmer temperature component. We actually like that aspect of their
projections though, because it could potentially put Tremblant more frequently
into Mother Natures’s own, best natural snowmaking temperature range at -7C,
+/- 3C.

On the differences between sources on the temperatures only, it should be
noted that even in the herein contained Temp. Projections from The Weather
Network, they vary to the Eastward extent, from South/Central Ontario,
towards Western Quebec, so in a favourable turn, the Old Farmers Almanac
could very well be correct.

One very cool coincidence as far as we’re concerned is that The Old farmers Almanac
centres their Eastern Canadian Projections around Ottawa as a geographical starting
point. We see that close proximity to Tremblant as another positive factor adding
to potential accuracy.

We had purchased our copy of the Almanac, as we do every Fall, and in going
through the forecasts we decided to call them up at the Phone Number listed
for their Dublin New Hampshire, U.S.A. Head Office for permissions to use their
map and forecast. We were surprised and very happy to be transferred through
to the Editor, Janice Stillman, who was kind enough to talk to us at some length
about the Quebec Forecast for this winter.

Besides the Map above, and with the Caveat that the precise dates of occurrence
may vary “Plus/Minus” a day or two... The Old Famers Almanac shows a very
beneficial Natural Snowfall pattern starting across our region commencing on or
around November 20th, and continuing on through to mid-December. The Almanac
goes on to say they forecast the seasons snowiest periods will be end of Nov. to
mid-Dec, late January, and all of February. Generally, they are forecasting Above
Normal Snowfall for Quebec for the entire winter.


The Old Famers Almanac shows the coolest parts of our Quebec winter to be
end of Nov., mid to late Dec., early to mid Jan., late Jan. to early Feb., and
mid to late Feb.

Good thing it’s a Ski Resort...

(Editors Note:
It was our privilege to be able to speak first hand to Ms. Stillman. She is only
the 13th Editor since 1792. The Old Farmers Almanac has the distinction of being
the oldest Periodical in Continuous Publication in North America. 225 years of
tradition with a correct weather prediction record they state is at 80%, so we
are especially excited about their call for “Above Normal Snowfall”!)

Additional Canadian December, January, February Forecast Projections from
The Weather Network


Temperature Only Weather Model:
Attachment:
File comment: Screenshot Courtesy of The Weather Network.
9.22.16.The.Weather.Network.Forecast.a.jpg
9.22.16.The.Weather.Network.Forecast.a.jpg [ 382.71 KiB | Viewed 3947 times ]


--------------Insert Addition 10.28.16 ------------------

This is an Annotated Forecast Model we included in our
article on Fall 2016 Pre-Season Snowmaking, and we are
including it here as auxiliary support data.

This annotated graphic underscores the importance of the typical -4C Cooler
temps at Mountain Elevations that should be taken into consideration
when looking at posted Tremblant Weather Stat’s that are all for South Base Levels.


Attachment:
File comment: Screenshot Courtesy of The Weather Network.
Screen Shot 2016-10-28 at 4.08.57 PM.jpg
Screen Shot 2016-10-28 at 4.08.57 PM.jpg [ 178.18 KiB | Viewed 3911 times ]


To review our Fall 2016 Snowmaking Article...
Go.Back.To Forum Section “Tremblant Geographic” and
scroll to Article Titled:

"Official #Tremblant Snowmaking Seasonal Startup. Oct.26.2016"

-------------end of insert ----------------

------------- Insert Addition 10.30.16 ------------------

Please Note: The above Weather Network Graphic dated 9.22.16 has been
updated with this graphic we have annotated and include herein dated 10.30.16.
The importance of this addition is the consistency of the developing weather
models in terms of the principle Winter Permission, i.e., “Cold”.
Without Sub-Zero C/below 32F, nothing happens at any Ski Resort, so
these forecast models are very Positive Indicators.


Temperature Only Weather Model:
Attachment:
File comment: Screenshot Courtesy of The Weather Network.
Screen Shot 2016-10-30 at 8.43.54 AM.jpg
Screen Shot 2016-10-30 at 8.43.54 AM.jpg [ 500.79 KiB | Viewed 3911 times ]


-------------- end of insert -----------------------------

Summary:

If the concept of a “Venn Diagram” means anything to you, we think that may
be the value in “Overlapping” the features of all the different sources onto
one single composite for Tremblant. The best of all that would have temperatures
floating around either side of normal, with above average natural snowfall.

For Long-Term Ski Holiday Planers this fall, this is all very re-assuring for good
Ski and Snowboard Conditions!


Regardless of the precise amounts of Natural Snowfall expected, the over-riding
trump card for all Winter Alpine Snow Sports is Sub-Zero Celsius, or below 32 deg.
F, the freezing mark, as Snowmaking is only possible at that point. On that
account, we feel there is great comfort to be taken from all these forecasts, due to
Tremblant’s tremendous Snowmaking capability that can easily establish and
build great conditions notwithstanding Mother Natures own contributions
when there is a cool start to seasonal projections.

A review of our Mountain Conditions Archive for the winter of 2014/15 will
show the absolutely tremendous consistency in quality and quantity possible
with sustained “Cool” over extended time periods.

A similar review of last season, winter 2015/16 shows the benefits of abundant
natural snowfall, so with all these forecast elements of “Cool” and “Snowy”...


...is it possible that this winter could see a sort-of “Super-Season” combination
of the two previously excellent for different reasons seasons?


We look forward to finding out!


Copy/Send this link to share this article:
http://tinyurl.com/hyvgyts

Mother Nature Caveat: Weather predictions are arguably as much
an Art as Science. As good as our understanding is of Historic Weather
Pattern Observations and Current Levels of Meteorological Scientific
development, Mother Nature reserves the rights to vary from Human
expectations without notice, but... the odds in favour of Human predictive
accuracy are increasing every day.

Topic potentially under development until just before Opening Day if additional
information becomes available...

.

_________________
The Tremblant360.com Team


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 Post subject: Re: Early Weather Forecasts for Winter 2016/17
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 26, 2017 11:26 am 
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Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2008 2:53 pm
Posts: 2092
Location: Canada
Supplementary/Anecdotal Data Applicable To This Topic.

Please Note: Initial Entry, Graphic Archive.


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The Following Graphic is a component of
regular Tremblant360. Mountain Reports
content of circa Feb/10/17.



Attachment:
File comment: www.tremblant360.com graphic.
2.10.17.Snowfall.Compare.Previous.Annual.Totals.c.jpg
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Anecdotal Regional Supplementary/Comparative Data.

It should be noted from below that when there is relatively
low ice coverage in the lower Great Lakes of Huron, Erie
and Ontario, together with relatively warm surface water temps.,
the Sou-West Flow of Jet Stream Winter air has good opportunity
to pick up considerable moisture over the lakes that often gets
carried right over Tremblant where the consequent precipitation
falls as Snow.

Attachment:
Screen Shot 2017-02-05 at 2.34.49 AM.jpg
Screen Shot 2017-02-05 at 2.34.49 AM.jpg [ 655.66 KiB | Viewed 229 times ]





.

_________________
The Tremblant360.com Team


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