Early Weather Forecasts for Winter 2017/18
Posted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 1:51 pm
.
“Aloha”(*) To Winter In Tremblant For November 2017,
Through To April 2018!
Attention Tremblant Skiers, Boarders, Pass Holders, Holiday/Trip Planners...
You Need To Scan This, Then Book Your Calendar Up with Tremblant Visit(s) ASAP!
We think there’s good probability for another year of Above
Average Natural Snow Accumulations and consistent, supporting
temperatures below Zero C/32’ F. Current La Nina Patterns
over the Mid-Pacific Ocean indicate favourable Winter Weather
that should generate both Quality and Durability over the
Tremblant Alpine Ski/Snowboard Trail Network.
In this article, we will make the case for why we feel Tremblant
offers you some distinct advantages over its other Eastern
North American Ski Resort Peers in this particular Winter
weather scenario.
Below: This is a scene from Nov. 28, 2016 with a very
obvious and very beneficial start to “Winter”, that we
hope and expect to be similar this season.
Part 1): To begin with...
(*)The use of “Aloha”, a Hawaiian Greeting word as an introduction
is absolutely intentional because even though Hawaii is north
of the equator, it is close enough, and it is weather in the equatorial
mid-Pacific Ocean that is probably the single biggest driver of Winter
conditions that will be experienced over the entire North-Eastern Sector
of North America, and consequently over the Tremblant Ski Season.
Better known in common weather reference terms as “La Nina”,
or as "El Nino”, these two terms define the typical relationships
between Pacific Ocean Surface Water Temperatures and Atmospheric
Wind Patterns that can effect Global Weather, but more specifically
North American Continental Weather, on a first-hand basis. This
First-Hand exposure to the Pacific Ocean Weather Making is simply
due to the basic West To East “Jet Stream” of Atmospheric flow
where North America is first in line to be weather moderated
from the strong influences of the World’s Single Largest Expanse of
Surface Water Temperature.
Below: All you need to know about basics of
El Nino/La Nina and variations.
(Please Note:
The Nor-East Coast of Australia is Lower-Left in illustrations.
The West Coast of Central America is Upper-Right in illustrations.)
It seems that in Weather Forecasting, predictive accuracy is enhanced
by recognition of historical data in combination with real-time observations
and the application of modelling methods that have a degree of previous
correctness. Weather forecasters do not always agree on exact prediction
because they may combine any of the above factors “More or Less”, in ratio’s
of importance that vary in terms of their own understandings, so what we
look for at Tremblant360.com, is consensus within forecast elements.
A lot of consensus is driven by the real-time observations and so-far,
in the Fall of 2017, the observed consensus is that there is a La Nina
pattern(to some degree or variation as noted below), in the Mid-Pacific.
This pattern historically results in a good “Winter” for Eastern North America.
That’s a very good thing if you are sitting in Boston MA, USA, or
Toronto Ont, CDN, or Ashford, Kent, UK. at Mid-October and you
are ready to make a deposit on a week-long Family Ski Holiday
for this season.
Typical La Nina Winter Weather Pattern:
The ENSO Variation of La Nina:
Part 2):
People Love To Talk About The Weather.
Weather forecasting is not restricted to giant Government
or Broadcast Media Entities.
The Internet has done amazing things to open up both
Data Acquisition and Individual Interpretation for accessibility
and we annually search for relevant Individual opinion that falls
within the domain of the “Big Picture” consensus, but with specific
reference to our local region. On that account, we were very happy
to find “Southern Quebec Severe Weather Network” or “S.Q.S.W.N”,
on Facebook, and we contacted them for permission to use their
excellent detailed Winter Forecast. Permission Granted. Thanks S.Q.S.W.N !!!
Here it is in Screenshot Format:
(Please Note Line #16, “Alpine Skiers” Reference(**)
In This Screenshot Below. We will discuss this reference
specifically later in the article.)
The Three Supporting Images Attached
to the above post are here, and credits
should be noted as per individually labeled
within each image.
(**) Re: Line #16 from SQSWN Text Post Above:
We want to focus on one of the Tremblant advantages
here which is... The Biggest Single Mother Nature Permission
for a Great Ski Season... Sub-Zero C, Below 32’ F.
Without “Cold”, nothing can happen, so regardless of
the total amounts of Snowfall, at Tremblant, even a
lower natural component can be turned into a great
season with the Snowmaking Augmentation of one
of the most sophisticated, well developed, and best
managed Snowmaking Systems anywhere.
Additionally, there are different opinions regarding
predicted Snowfall that indicate More Than Average,
and we’ll look at those as well.
Part 3):
Consensus... Or Not?...
On Some Things, Not Others?
Below is an example, of a forecast that differs from
SQSWN, from the publishers of “The Old Farmers Almanac."
Last year, we looked extensively at the “Old Farmers Almanac”
Quebec forecast which turned out to be quite close to the actual
outcome, and you can review that by returning to the
index of this Forum Section. What you will notice is the
similarity of last seasons graphic to this seasons predictions
for the Quebec Sector of the map.
Here is their graphic for the 2017/18 Winter coming up:
The Old Farmers Almanac has it’s own proprietary formula
based on Historic and Data patterns in use since 1792,
so there are not many others that can claim their depth of
historic perspective. Over the years, they also have integrated a
more modern scientific component with their ties to AccuWeather.Inc.,
so in total balance, we have to give their forecast serious consideration.
Of Course...
As Skiers we like any forecast combination that has both
stable sub-zero C’s/below 32”F AND abundant Snowfall,
so we’re going to move this topic onward with a few more
forecasts following, that also differ in the projected Snowfall
potentials. Those forecasts are posted below as “Reply”....
Please Note: This topic is under construction on a Progressive
Assembly basis and there may be Alterations, Additions or Up-Dates
as needed for clarity, or as noteworthy developments occur right up
to “First Tracks” on Opening Day.
Reality Clause Caveat:
Weather Forecasting includes elements of speculation and
Mother Nature reserves the rights to change or vary without
notice to humans, either up or down in any metrics of either
temps or precip., so we need to acknowledge outcomes could
be different due to those possibilities.
.
“Aloha”(*) To Winter In Tremblant For November 2017,
Through To April 2018!
Attention Tremblant Skiers, Boarders, Pass Holders, Holiday/Trip Planners...
You Need To Scan This, Then Book Your Calendar Up with Tremblant Visit(s) ASAP!
We think there’s good probability for another year of Above
Average Natural Snow Accumulations and consistent, supporting
temperatures below Zero C/32’ F. Current La Nina Patterns
over the Mid-Pacific Ocean indicate favourable Winter Weather
that should generate both Quality and Durability over the
Tremblant Alpine Ski/Snowboard Trail Network.
In this article, we will make the case for why we feel Tremblant
offers you some distinct advantages over its other Eastern
North American Ski Resort Peers in this particular Winter
weather scenario.
Below: This is a scene from Nov. 28, 2016 with a very
obvious and very beneficial start to “Winter”, that we
hope and expect to be similar this season.
Part 1): To begin with...
(*)The use of “Aloha”, a Hawaiian Greeting word as an introduction
is absolutely intentional because even though Hawaii is north
of the equator, it is close enough, and it is weather in the equatorial
mid-Pacific Ocean that is probably the single biggest driver of Winter
conditions that will be experienced over the entire North-Eastern Sector
of North America, and consequently over the Tremblant Ski Season.
Better known in common weather reference terms as “La Nina”,
or as "El Nino”, these two terms define the typical relationships
between Pacific Ocean Surface Water Temperatures and Atmospheric
Wind Patterns that can effect Global Weather, but more specifically
North American Continental Weather, on a first-hand basis. This
First-Hand exposure to the Pacific Ocean Weather Making is simply
due to the basic West To East “Jet Stream” of Atmospheric flow
where North America is first in line to be weather moderated
from the strong influences of the World’s Single Largest Expanse of
Surface Water Temperature.
Below: All you need to know about basics of
El Nino/La Nina and variations.
(Please Note:
The Nor-East Coast of Australia is Lower-Left in illustrations.
The West Coast of Central America is Upper-Right in illustrations.)
It seems that in Weather Forecasting, predictive accuracy is enhanced
by recognition of historical data in combination with real-time observations
and the application of modelling methods that have a degree of previous
correctness. Weather forecasters do not always agree on exact prediction
because they may combine any of the above factors “More or Less”, in ratio’s
of importance that vary in terms of their own understandings, so what we
look for at Tremblant360.com, is consensus within forecast elements.
A lot of consensus is driven by the real-time observations and so-far,
in the Fall of 2017, the observed consensus is that there is a La Nina
pattern(to some degree or variation as noted below), in the Mid-Pacific.
This pattern historically results in a good “Winter” for Eastern North America.
That’s a very good thing if you are sitting in Boston MA, USA, or
Toronto Ont, CDN, or Ashford, Kent, UK. at Mid-October and you
are ready to make a deposit on a week-long Family Ski Holiday
for this season.
Typical La Nina Winter Weather Pattern:
The ENSO Variation of La Nina:
Part 2):
People Love To Talk About The Weather.
Weather forecasting is not restricted to giant Government
or Broadcast Media Entities.
The Internet has done amazing things to open up both
Data Acquisition and Individual Interpretation for accessibility
and we annually search for relevant Individual opinion that falls
within the domain of the “Big Picture” consensus, but with specific
reference to our local region. On that account, we were very happy
to find “Southern Quebec Severe Weather Network” or “S.Q.S.W.N”,
on Facebook, and we contacted them for permission to use their
excellent detailed Winter Forecast. Permission Granted. Thanks S.Q.S.W.N !!!
Here it is in Screenshot Format:
(Please Note Line #16, “Alpine Skiers” Reference(**)
In This Screenshot Below. We will discuss this reference
specifically later in the article.)
The Three Supporting Images Attached
to the above post are here, and credits
should be noted as per individually labeled
within each image.
(**) Re: Line #16 from SQSWN Text Post Above:
We want to focus on one of the Tremblant advantages
here which is... The Biggest Single Mother Nature Permission
for a Great Ski Season... Sub-Zero C, Below 32’ F.
Without “Cold”, nothing can happen, so regardless of
the total amounts of Snowfall, at Tremblant, even a
lower natural component can be turned into a great
season with the Snowmaking Augmentation of one
of the most sophisticated, well developed, and best
managed Snowmaking Systems anywhere.
Additionally, there are different opinions regarding
predicted Snowfall that indicate More Than Average,
and we’ll look at those as well.
Part 3):
Consensus... Or Not?...
On Some Things, Not Others?
Below is an example, of a forecast that differs from
SQSWN, from the publishers of “The Old Farmers Almanac."
Last year, we looked extensively at the “Old Farmers Almanac”
Quebec forecast which turned out to be quite close to the actual
outcome, and you can review that by returning to the
index of this Forum Section. What you will notice is the
similarity of last seasons graphic to this seasons predictions
for the Quebec Sector of the map.
Here is their graphic for the 2017/18 Winter coming up:
The Old Farmers Almanac has it’s own proprietary formula
based on Historic and Data patterns in use since 1792,
so there are not many others that can claim their depth of
historic perspective. Over the years, they also have integrated a
more modern scientific component with their ties to AccuWeather.Inc.,
so in total balance, we have to give their forecast serious consideration.
Of Course...
As Skiers we like any forecast combination that has both
stable sub-zero C’s/below 32”F AND abundant Snowfall,
so we’re going to move this topic onward with a few more
forecasts following, that also differ in the projected Snowfall
potentials. Those forecasts are posted below as “Reply”....
Please Note: This topic is under construction on a Progressive
Assembly basis and there may be Alterations, Additions or Up-Dates
as needed for clarity, or as noteworthy developments occur right up
to “First Tracks” on Opening Day.
Reality Clause Caveat:
Weather Forecasting includes elements of speculation and
Mother Nature reserves the rights to change or vary without
notice to humans, either up or down in any metrics of either
temps or precip., so we need to acknowledge outcomes could
be different due to those possibilities.
.