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Early Weather Forecasts for Winter 2017/18
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Author:  T360 [ Fri Oct 13, 2017 1:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Early Weather Forecasts for Winter 2017/18

“Aloha”(*) To Winter In Tremblant For November 2017,
Through To April 2018!

Attention Tremblant Skiers, Boarders, Pass Holders, Holiday/Trip Planners...
You Need To Scan This, Then Book Your Calendar Up with Tremblant Visit(s) ASAP!

We think there’s good probability for another year of Above
Average Natural Snow Accumulations and consistent, supporting
temperatures below Zero C/32’ F. Current La Nina Patterns
over the Mid-Pacific Ocean indicate favourable Winter Weather
that should generate both Quality and Durability over the
Tremblant Alpine Ski/Snowboard Trail Network.

In this article, we will make the case for why we feel Tremblant
offers you some distinct advantages over its other Eastern
North American Ski Resort Peers in this particular Winter
weather scenario.

Below: This is a scene from Nov. 28, 2016 with a very
obvious and very beneficial start to “Winter”, that we
hope and expect to be similar this season.

File comment: Photo. All Rights Reserved.
11.28.16.La.Crete.Sunny.No.Wind.Big.Sky.b.jpg [ 503.34 KiB | Viewed 1633 times ]

Part 1): To begin with...

(*)The use of “Aloha”, a Hawaiian Greeting word as an introduction
is absolutely intentional because even though Hawaii is north
of the equator, it is close enough, and it is weather in the equatorial
mid-Pacific Ocean that is probably the single biggest driver of Winter
conditions that will be experienced over the entire North-Eastern Sector
of North America, and consequently over the Tremblant Ski Season.

Better known in common weather reference terms as “La Nina”,
or as "El Nino”, these two terms define the typical relationships
between Pacific Ocean Surface Water Temperatures and Atmospheric
Wind Patterns that can effect Global Weather, but more specifically
North American Continental Weather, on a first-hand basis. This
First-Hand exposure to the Pacific Ocean Weather Making is simply
due to the basic West To East “Jet Stream” of Atmospheric flow
where North America is first in line to be weather moderated
from the strong influences of the World’s Single Largest Expanse of
Surface Water Temperature.

Below: All you need to know about basics of
El Nino/La Nina and variations.

(Please Note:
The Nor-East Coast of Australia is Lower-Left in illustrations.
The West Coast of Central America is Upper-Right in illustrations.)

File comment: Diagram Courtesy of Ashok and Yamagata Circa 2009.
El.Nino.La.Nina.Diagram.Ashok.Yamagata.09.a.jpg [ 135.17 KiB | Viewed 1631 times ]

File comment: Diagram Courtesy of Ashok and Yamagata Circa 2007.
Data.Courtesy.Ashok.Yamagata.Circa.2007.jpg [ 190.96 KiB | Viewed 1631 times ]

It seems that in Weather Forecasting, predictive accuracy is enhanced
by recognition of historical data in combination with real-time observations
and the application of modelling methods that have a degree of previous
correctness. Weather forecasters do not always agree on exact prediction
because they may combine any of the above factors “More or Less”, in ratio’s
of importance that vary in terms of their own understandings, so what we
look for at, is consensus within forecast elements.

A lot of consensus is driven by the real-time observations and so-far,
in the Fall of 2017, the observed consensus is that there is a La Nina
pattern(to some degree or variation as noted below), in the Mid-Pacific.
This pattern historically results in a good “Winter” for Eastern North America.

That’s a very good thing if you are sitting in Boston MA, USA, or
Toronto Ont, CDN, or Ashford, Kent, UK. at Mid-October and you
are ready to make a deposit on a week-long Family Ski Holiday
for this season.

Typical La Nina Winter Weather Pattern:

Screen Shot 2017-10-13 at 8.18.15 AM.jpg
Screen Shot 2017-10-13 at 8.18.15 AM.jpg [ 230.27 KiB | Viewed 1628 times ]

The ENSO Variation of La Nina:

El.Nino.ENSO.Def.Illust.a.jpg [ 195.12 KiB | Viewed 1626 times ]

Part 2):

People Love To Talk About The Weather.

Weather forecasting is not restricted to giant Government
or Broadcast Media Entities.

The Internet has done amazing things to open up both
Data Acquisition and Individual Interpretation for accessibility
and we annually search for relevant Individual opinion that falls
within the domain of the “Big Picture” consensus, but with specific
reference to our local region. On that account, we were very happy
to find “Southern Quebec Severe Weather Network” or “S.Q.S.W.N”,
on Facebook, and we contacted them for permission to use their
excellent detailed Winter Forecast. Permission Granted. Thanks S.Q.S.W.N !!!

Here it is in Screenshot Format:

File comment: Screenshot Courtesy of SQSWN
Screen Shot 2017-10-13 at 9.33.14 AM.jpg
Screen Shot 2017-10-13 at 9.33.14 AM.jpg [ 132.89 KiB | Viewed 1626 times ]

(Please Note Line #16, “Alpine Skiers” Reference(**)
In This Screenshot Below. We will discuss this reference
specifically later in the article.)

File comment: Screenshot Courtesy of SQSWN
Screen Shot 2017-10-13 at 9.30.14 AM.jpg
Screen Shot 2017-10-13 at 9.30.14 AM.jpg [ 231.86 KiB | Viewed 1626 times ]

File comment: Screenshot Courtesy of SQSWN
Screen Shot 2017-10-13 at 9.31.03 AM.jpg
Screen Shot 2017-10-13 at 9.31.03 AM.jpg [ 373.88 KiB | Viewed 1626 times ]

File comment: Screenshot Courtesy of SQSWN
Screen Shot 2017-10-13 at 9.31.28 AM.jpg
Screen Shot 2017-10-13 at 9.31.28 AM.jpg [ 98.64 KiB | Viewed 1626 times ]

The Three Supporting Images Attached
to the above post are here, and credits
should be noted as per individually labeled
within each image.

File comment: Credits To All Individually Labelled Entities As Attached Individually Herein.
Screen Shot 2017-10-15 at 9.39.08 AM.jpg
Screen Shot 2017-10-15 at 9.39.08 AM.jpg [ 236.43 KiB | Viewed 1625 times ]

(**) Re: Line #16 from SQSWN Text Post Above:
We want to focus on one of the Tremblant advantages
here which is... The Biggest Single Mother Nature Permission
for a Great Ski Season... Sub-Zero C, Below 32’ F.

Without “Cold”, nothing can happen, so regardless of
the total amounts of Snowfall, at Tremblant, even a
lower natural component can be turned into a great
season with the Snowmaking Augmentation of one
of the most sophisticated, well developed, and best
managed Snowmaking Systems anywhere.

Additionally, there are different opinions regarding
predicted Snowfall that indicate More Than Average,
and we’ll look at those as well.

Part 3):

Consensus... Or Not?...
On Some Things, Not Others?

Below is an example, of a forecast that differs from
SQSWN, from the publishers of “The Old Farmers Almanac."

Last year, we looked extensively at the “Old Farmers Almanac”
Quebec forecast which turned out to be quite close to the actual
outcome, and you can review that by returning to the
index of this Forum Section. What you will notice is the
similarity of last seasons graphic to this seasons predictions
for the Quebec Sector of the map.

Here is their graphic for the 2017/18 Winter coming up:

File comment: Graphic Courtesy of The Old Farmers Almanac, 2017/18 Forecast.
Screen Shot 2017-10-13 at 7.41.37 AM.jpg
Screen Shot 2017-10-13 at 7.41.37 AM.jpg [ 162.54 KiB | Viewed 1625 times ]

The Old Farmers Almanac has it’s own proprietary formula
based on Historic and Data patterns in use since 1792,
so there are not many others that can claim their depth of
historic perspective. Over the years, they also have integrated a
more modern scientific component with their ties to AccuWeather.Inc.,
so in total balance, we have to give their forecast serious consideration.

File comment: Screenshots Courtesy of The Old Farmers Almanac.
Screen Shot 2017-10-15 at 11.00.34 AM.jpg
Screen Shot 2017-10-15 at 11.00.34 AM.jpg [ 343.11 KiB | Viewed 1624 times ]

Of Course...

As Skiers we like any forecast combination that has both
stable sub-zero C’s/below 32”F AND abundant Snowfall,
so we’re going to move this topic onward with a few more
forecasts following, that also differ in the projected Snowfall
potentials. Those forecasts are posted below as “Reply”....

Please Note: This topic is under construction on a Progressive
Assembly basis and there may be Alterations, Additions or Up-Dates
as needed for clarity, or as noteworthy developments occur right up
to “First Tracks” on Opening Day.

Reality Clause Caveat:
Weather Forecasting includes elements of speculation and
Mother Nature reserves the rights to change or vary without
notice to humans, either up or down in any metrics of either
temps or precip., so we need to acknowledge outcomes could
be different due to those possibilities.


Author:  T360 [ Sun Oct 15, 2017 5:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Early Weather Forecasts for Winter 2017/18

#Tremblant Winter Season 2017/2018 Long Range Forecasts... Continued.

Similar, Maybe Better than Last Year’s

5.4 Metres/ 17.7 Feet of Near-Record, Natural Snowfall?


File comment: photo. All Rights Reserved.
2.10.17.Versant.Sud.South.Ryan.Haut.Upper.b.jpg [ 507.3 KiB | Viewed 1619 times ]

(Above: We had so much natural snow last season, that by
Feb. 10th, there were Locals who were making comments
like... “These are the Best Conditions we can ever remember
on Upper Ryan”. Ryan is a Trail that was cut in 1938. It is located
on Versant Sud, the South Side, Summit Sector at Tremblant.
It is Trail #24 on the Official Trail Map, which is recorded in our
Trail Pic. Catalogue of this Forum section. We think there’s a good chance
of same or better for all of Tremblant this coming season.)

Data Interpretations:
Try Imagining a “Venn Diagram” of everything you’re
seeing here in terms of Temp’s and Snowfall, each separately.

The first example in this section is from “Weather Bell”
and its unique Precip. display is expressed as Percentage,
as opposed to more conventional absolute Precip. values.
We like it a lot because it’s easy to imagine 33% more
Snow than average! It is also interesting because it is
the product of European Weather Modelling, which many
Global forecasters consider to be very accurate.

Screen Shot 2017-09-29 at 12.42.45 PM.jpg
Screen Shot 2017-09-29 at 12.42.45 PM.jpg [ 212.94 KiB | Viewed 1621 times ]

For the remainder of the compiled sources we’re siting this season,
we’re organizing them below in side-by-side graphic presentations, each one
starting with Mother Natures most fundamental Winter permission... “Cool”,
Temp’s on screen left, with Precipitation to the right. You can scroll
up/down/up, to quickly see where they either vary or differ.

We’ve also left the two primary Canadian Forecasters,
"Environment Canada" and “The Weather Network”,
for inclusion at the final position as “Local Content”.

If you’re arriving from the U.S.A. or the U.K.,
"The Weather Network" is the Canadian 24/7 CableTV
Broadcaster you will be able to see when you come to
Tremblant for your Totally Winter Ski Holiday 2017/18!!!

Please Note: We have annotated the following
graphics with RED CIRCLES indicating the Tremblant
Region for those Euro’s or USA’s not familiar with
Canadian Geography.

Screen Shot 2017-10-15 at 6.04.43 PM.jpg
Screen Shot 2017-10-15 at 6.04.43 PM.jpg [ 169.96 KiB | Viewed 1621 times ]

Screen Shot 2017-10-15 at 6.07.59 PM.jpg
Screen Shot 2017-10-15 at 6.07.59 PM.jpg [ 200.13 KiB | Viewed 1621 times ]

Screen Shot 2017-10-15 at 6.12.30 PM.jpg
Screen Shot 2017-10-15 at 6.12.30 PM.jpg [ 194.86 KiB | Viewed 1621 times ]

Screen Shot 2017-10-15 at 6.14.36 PM.jpg
Screen Shot 2017-10-15 at 6.14.36 PM.jpg [ 218.97 KiB | Viewed 1621 times ]

In Summary:

Here Is What We’re Hoping And Forecasting To Do
In November 2017 At Tremblant.

File comment: photo. All Rights Reserved.
11.28.16.Beauvallon.Shred.Sunny.Snow.g.jpg [ 592.36 KiB | Viewed 1621 times ]

There is more than sufficient consensus in our opinion,
to say at the least... that there is a significant probability of this
season at Tremblant being a more stable version of last year
that was the second best Snowfall of the 21st. Century.

This is particularly significant when you factor in that Tremblant,
by height and square area, is a large enough Geo-Physical entity to
potentially generate its own weather dynamic that may be beneficially
different from regional surrounds. (##)

What that means is the potential of higher than average,
if not near-record natural snowfall, but with a more consistent
sub-zero temp. stability factors, so fewer thaw events and more
uninterrupted periods of Pure Winter conditions that have very
little in either daily or accumulated icy bits.

Immense Potential For Seasonal Tremblant Excellence.


Always remember, We Say...

The Best Ski/Board Performance Snow Is Like Champagne...

“Serve Well Chilled!”

File comment: photo. All Rights Reserved
2.26.15.Carve.This.Shred.Versant.Sud.Tremblant.Beauvallon.d.jpg [ 898.97 KiB | Viewed 1605 times ]

Squeaky Cool, Compacted, Pure Snow has the absolute best Groomed Performance
for all Skill Levels from Beginners To Experts, and that, Dear Readers, is a Specialty
of the House at Tremblant.

Advantage Tremblant!

-Low Friction and High Grip Levels make everything easier...

-“North”, as in Latitude, is almost always an advantage over “South”
for the essential qualities of “Winter” and “Skiing”.

If you look back up at the SQSWN post you will see a
reference to Quebec Latitudinal Temp Spreads with
regard to White Christmas in the Southern Townships adjacent
to the Vermont and New York State Borders, where it will be warmer.
This latitudinal difference is not restricted to just X-Mas time, it’s
generally true all season long. A classic case where “North" is good
for Alpine Ski/Board conditions at Tremblant compared to more
Southerly places.

-The Mountain Ski Elevations at Tremblant are the Highest
in the Pre-Cambrian Laurentian Mountains, and typically
4Degrees C Cooler Than Base Levels.
Our hypothesis is(##)
that because of these facts, Tremblant gets significant, localized,
Orographic opportunities and Natural Snowfall Benefits from the frequent,
moisture laden, Colorado or Texas Low’s that pick up additional evaporation
over the Lower Great Lakes of Huron, Erie, and Ontario, that are very common
to this La Nina Pattern. They then often transit in a Sou-Westerly to
Nor-East line straight toward Tremblant, frequently causing the moist
warm air to be pushed up into local, colder, Upper Atmospheric Masses
that then cause the moisture to condense and fall on Tremblant
as Snow, all under the prevailing flow. In our Archived, Daily,
Mountain Conditions for Alpine Skiing/Boarding, we have identified
what we believe to be this Orographic phenomenon between as many
as 5 to 7(+/-), occurrences annually, and they are particularly significant
when Base Level temps are in the -2C to -7C range.

Here is one sample of what we believe is a typical Orographically generated,
seasonally accumulated, drift line on the Nord, North Summit Sector of Tremblant
that is typical of the pattern described. It is from Feb. 20th, 2017.

File comment: Photo. All Rights Reserved. [ 688.2 KiB | Viewed 1273 times ]

Keep in mind our Local Observations from which we draw our own blended
conclusions, span 43 Seasons of Skiing at Tremblant with a keen eye focused
on the weather and its effects, over and around the Mountain.

Look again at the La Nina Jet Streams.

With this pattern, we’re usually just on the North Side
of the big Arrow in the NOAA Graphic.

File comment: Graphic Courtesy of NOAA.
Screen Shot 2017-10-17 at 9.01.45 AM.jpg
Screen Shot 2017-10-17 at 9.01.45 AM.jpg [ 145.37 KiB | Viewed 1606 times ]

Advantage Tremblant!

File comment: photo. All Rights Reserved.
12.19.16.Lac.T.Views.Mt.T.Sunny.Versant.Sud.South.Side.b.jpg [ 605.43 KiB | Viewed 1606 times ]

Bottom Line...

Last Season We Correctly Predicted A “Super Season” combination of
Positive Factors and based on all you see here, we’re making this
Seasons Forecast to be a “Super Season” too!


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