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 Post subject: A Tale Of Two(or more) Winters 2017, 2018
 Post Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:13 pm 
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Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2008 2:53 pm
Posts: 2304
Location: Canada
Introduction to “A Tale Of Two(or more) Winters”...
(but there’s more, with an added theoretical
attachment we’ll get to further on...)
“Coincidence" or “Trend"?

File comment: www.Tremblant360.com photo. All rights reserved.
2.5.17.Nord.North.Lowell.Thomas.Trail.Side.Proof.Of.Snow.e.jpg [ 592.63 KiB | Viewed 617 times ]

Given: Tremblant.ca Mountain Stat’s: 21 year averaged
Ski-seasonal snowfall accumulations @416cm’s.(*)

The winters of 2016/17 and 2017/18 were both excellent
examples of snowfall of well over our subjective criteria of
500 cm’s of seasonal accumulations we define as a “Super
Season”. This has also been the case in 5 out of 6 of the
immediate past winters.

You can review the “Mountain Reports” journal pages section
in our Forums one by one for both/all seasons to see all or any
portion thereof, and how those accumulations favourably
affected conditions.

A note of measurement perspective for our American Cousins
who still work and think in “Feet” and “Inches”, i.e., Imperial
measurements, instead of Metric units. Last winter 2017/18
had 557cm’s which is 18 feet, 3 inches of natural snowfall.
(This is a great number for Eastern North America, where
at Tremblant, it’s cool enough to keep it all, practically speaking.)
The difference to the previous winter @ 538cm’s is only 7.5 Inches
for the whole season, making them very close.

What is interesting to us in these examples is the difference in the
character of the two most recent seasons as a result of small differences
in Mother Natures timing, as well as being examples of anecdotal
observation of the overall increase in the number of recent winters
with larger than average seasonal accumulations.

Graph #1:
Individual 2017/18, Weekly Snowfall Accumulations.
2018.Snowfall.Weekly.Accumulations.Season.a.jpg [ 683.07 KiB | Viewed 659 times ]

Graph #2:
Individual 2017/17, Weekly Snowfall Accumulations.
2017.Snowfall.Weekly.Accumulations.Season.a.jpg [ 214.15 KiB | Viewed 660 times ]

Graph #3:
Side by side, raw unannotated bar graph comparison.
Screen Shot 2018-06-20 at 11.05.44 AM.jpg
Screen Shot 2018-06-20 at 11.05.44 AM.jpg [ 188.54 KiB | Viewed 638 times ]

When you lay the data points over one another you can
see the differences clearly, particularly the extra amounts
at the very beginning and the very end of the 2017/18.

Graph #4:
(Please Note: our error in the un-numbered Bonus Weekend
ending April 22, for 2018 which should be week number 22,
represented by the Green line below.)
2018.17.Overlay.Snowfall.Weekly.Accumulations.Seasons.a.jpg [ 372.26 KiB | Viewed 659 times ]

Even though the additional amounts are small in comparison
to the seasonal totals, the fact that they came at the beginning
and the end added a disproportionally large utility benefit to 17/18
because of the sensitivity that open trail status always has to
weather at both the seasons start-up when “Raw Material” is
critically important to trail openings, and “Refreshment” adds
significantly to scope and quality at close.

For 17/18, we think there’s no doubt that the most profound
effects were at start-up when both Versant Sud, South, and
Versant Nord, North, opened from Summit-to-Base for only the
second time in Tremblant history. Additionally, as far as we can
determine, it was the largest number of open trails and square
area of open snow covered terrain for any Tremblant seasons opening... ever.

The “head start” 17/18(“last winter” as we write this) got, generated
an accelerated rate of terrain development throughout the opening
weeks, so it was literally a gift that kept on giving, and again, as far
as we can determine, it was the first time in Tremblant history that
the Mountain opened 100% Trails/Terrain for New Years Day, January 1st.

Otherwise, the two winters shared the normal high points attached
to periodic snowstorms, as well as the very highest levels of terrain
refinement/grooming that come with deep base accumulations.

The final phases of season 17/18 also benefitted from active snowfall
right up to the very last weekend which had the effect of yielding very
winter-like Ski/Board performance up to, and including the bonus weekend
of April 21/22, 2018.

Fresh snow in the trees, closing weekend, April 21, 2018.
File comment: www.Tremblant360.com photo. All rights reserved.
4.21.18.Lowell.Thomas.View.Upwards.Over.First.Pitch.At.Summit.Ski.Patrol.HQ.d.jpg [ 489.08 KiB | Viewed 554 times ]

Scroll back up to Graph #4 and you can review the differences
that may be small in terms of seasonal totals for both years that
were within 19cm’s, 7.5 inches, but because of timing, made
substantial enhancements to utility. Looking at week #13 to seasons
end snowfall will go along way to the justification for the April 2018
Bonus Weekend extension with 159cm’s as opposed to 49cm’s
for the similar period in 2017. On the flip-side, obviously, there
were some extraordinary conditions weeks 11-13 in 2017 due
to very rapid buildups. Both seasons uniquely excellent.

Now then, this is the part we referred to at the
top of the page as a “theoretical attachment”.

Look at the last 11 winters, there is 1 low one for sure, but
the majority are quite nicely above a 21(*) year average
of 416cm's, and 5 of the last 6 are quite a bit over the average.

4.22.18.Seasonal.Snowfall.Accummulations.Graph.Years.2000.To.2018.a.2.jpg [ 519.9 KiB | Viewed 657 times ]

((*) This graph above was a 21st Century comparison for
a previous article, but Tremblant.ca current Mountain Stat’s
are published back for 21 years, showing 416cm’s average.)

“Coincidence" or “Trend"?

Our “Trend" theory is that as Global Warming may be causing a
slight increase in average temps, this may actually be bringing
Tremblant up into Mother Natures own best natural snow making
temps at roughly -7C(+/- 3C), more frequently. Furthermore,
at regionally critical tipping points at or around the freezing mark,
Tremblant also seems to remain favourably on the lower temp
sub-zero range more frequently. We think this may be resulting in
a higher consistency of thermal-free days when compared to it’s
regional peers at slightly lower, more southerly latitudes.

This is not the first time we’ve reported on these observations
or our theoretical attempt at understanding them. The fact remains
that the experience of the past 6 winters are snowfall measurements
that are a matter of record.

We think this could develop into a more statistically supportable
trend of snowier Tremblant winters, and that over time these
near or over 500cm”+” snowfall winters could become more
common? If that trend was to become the case, the benefits would
include far higher probabilities of the most desirable winter qualities
for pre-booked Alpine Snow Sport vacations and/or Seasons Pass

Examinations of our daily archives will show that there is optimized
quality virtually every single day the Mountain is open, regardless of
any seasons individual snowfall, or weather cycles. However, there is
no doubt that the added mechanical advantage of abundant natural
snow, especially if it becomes a statistical trend, facilitates an easy
elevation to levels of extraordinary quality.

Initial indications from preliminary Fall of 2018 long range winter weather
forecasts are also suggesting the Southern Quebec region of Eastern
North America may experience another season of above average snowfall.

Editors Note:
Topic under development until notice removed.

(*) Screenshot of Official Archived Seasonal
Snowfall Total Accumulations, Courtesy of
Tremblant.ca. 21 Year Average of this table
is 416cm's

File comment: Screenshot Courtesy of Tremblant.ca
Screen Shot 2018-08-10 at 6.11.07 PM.jpg
Screen Shot 2018-08-10 at 6.11.07 PM.jpg [ 166.81 KiB | Viewed 639 times ]

If you would like review the “Mountain Reports” journal pages
section in our Forums one by one for both/all seasons to see all
or any portion thereof, you can see how those accumulations
favourably affected conditions @ http://tinyurl.com/yktelmu

Please Scroll Down For Additional Data Posted Below.


The Tremblant360.com Team

 Post subject: Re: A Tale Of Two(or more) Winters 2017, 2018
 Post Posted: Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:05 am 
User avatar

Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2008 2:53 pm
Posts: 2304
Location: Canada
We have written a blog article featuring a focus
on the last 5 out of 6 winters that are all over 500cm’s
of natural snowfall, substantially over the 21 year average
of 416cm’s.

Here is the Graph we use for that article as a “Spin-off”
from this topic:

2018.6.Year.Snowfall.Stats.Graph.a copy.jpg
2018.6.Year.Snowfall.Stats.Graph.a copy.jpg [ 231.76 KiB | Viewed 552 times ]

In the Theoretical portion of the article herein, we hypothesize
Tremblant gets benefits applicable to regional temperature tipping points
at, or very close to the freezing mark, where Tremblant enjoys “Cool”
“Snow” and “Winter”, while southern regional areas experience
“Warm” “Wet”, and “Thaw”. Here is a sample @ https://tinyurl.com/y77eavg2
from February 20th, that illustrates one observation of that.
You can use the “Next Topic” button, top right post corner, to move
forward to Feb. 21.2018 to see how that develops.


The Tremblant360.com Team

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