Early Weather Forecasts for Winter 2018/19
Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:34 am
.
Please Note: This topic has been updated through November 15th, 2018,
including a detailed, daily weather forecast forward to Ski Season Opening Day
and Weekend, November 22, through November 25, 2018.
Scroll/read down to page 2(“reply”),
for all updates posted in chronological sequence.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Original Post Dated October 3, 2018.
When Comparing Last Winters 557cm’s(18 feet, 3.25inches)
Natural Snowfall Excellence To What We Expect This Winter,
Here Is A Very Important Concept...
"Similar Results For Different Reasons.”
In the case of this “Winter”, coming up to the November 22, 2018
Tremblant Alpine Ski Season Opening Day, and looking forward
to a general overview of our seasonal forecast expectations, we
are anticipating...
The potential of a forth “Super Season”(500cm’s “+”) in a row!!!
It could be a very similar winter to not only last winter, but similar
to 5 out of 6 past winters, with 26.0096% above average natural
snowfall accumulations.(*1) (The 21 year Tremblant average is
416cm’s, last season was 557cm’s, and we call anything from
500cm’s(20% over average) and up, a “Super Season”.)
Here is why... "Similar Results For Different Reasons.”
In meteorological terms, for last winters above average snowfall
(which was the second highest recorded in 21 years), the main
driver was a “La Nina” Pacific Ocean event that generated a
stable, stationary cold air mass over the Gulf of Alaska that
pushed the Northern Branch of the Polar Jet Stream well over
Alaska, where it descended in a south-easterly diagonal path
over northern Canada to end up crossing over Tremblant.
With 557cm’s of natural, very well retained snowfall,
the second highest recorded in 21 years, Tremblant’s
conditions were extraordinarily fine.
This year, for 2018/19, there is every good indication that once
again, there may be a stable, stationary air mass over the Gulf
of Alaska that will likely produce the very same northerly deflection
of the Polar Jet Stream on near to the exact same path as last winter.
However... there is one hugely different co-factor, the stationary air mass will
be derived from warmth instead of cold, due to a Pacific Ocean "El Nino”.
Hence: "Similar Results For Different Reasons.”
Graph # 1)
Everything in this article contributes to why we feel there’s a very
high probability for an excellent Tremblant Ski Season coming up, so...
Right away, we’re starting with a commonly available 2018/19 forecast
that illustrates the Tremblant Ski Season weather overview, from our
friends at the Old Farmers Almanac(*2). In addition to their 227 years of
historical records and interpretations of observational weather patterns,
they now also incorporate AccuWeather.com modern scientific data
processes into their proprietary forecast modelling. This blend of old
and new methodology has given them a reasonably high rate of accuracy,
so we think this forecast has a high probability of being valid.
(*2) Two years ago we interviewed the publisher of the Old Farmers
Almanac for our Winter Forecast and we were thoroughly impressed
with the intelligent approach that links 227 years of history with some
of the best, modern, computer aided weather modelling.
Additionally, they have been right for the past two years
that we have closely examined their forecasting modalities.
Graph # 2)
Expanded Here’s Why:
We frequently refer to the NOAA(National Oceans and Atmospheric
Administration branch of the US Federal Government), long term
weather forecast data because it is widely recognized around the
World as a Gold Standard of forecast probability.
This season, they say “El Nino”.
Graph # 3)
What Is “El Nino”?
Graph # 4)
“What Are The Chances?"
When it comes to forecasting anything, especially weather, both
the general population as well as the Science-based professionals
want to improve predictive accuracy. One of the best ways to do
that is to combine all the various weather model formulas used
around the World into one composite graph to evaluate consensus.
The following NOAA graphic does exactly that.
Graph # 5)
The Pacific Ocean is the largest distinct water body on Earth, so
even “Big Picture” occurrences like “El Nino” are not always purely
defined and when spread out over thousands of Kilometres/Miles,
can have variations within the overall phenomenon that give them
repeatable sub-sets. Due to a lingering pool of very cool water adjacent
to equatorial South America, this years El Nino is being further defined
as a “Modoki” El Nino.(Modoki was the Japanese Weather Scientist who first
identified these variations in Pacific Ocean dynamics, so they are named
after him.)
Below: Pacific Ocean Surface Temp. January 1st, 2018 -------------->>>> Pacific Ocean Surface Temp. August 20th, 2018.
Graph # 6)
This variation of El Nino retains the warm Pacific zones centrally at the
equator as well as up at the Gulf of Alaska, but keeps a cool sector right
beside South America.
Graph # 7)
Historically repeated observations of this variation typically
generate the same weather patterns over North America that
look like this:
Graph # 8)
Not Everyone Agrees... at least on certain details...
Any topic with so many variables in forecasting elements is subject
to different points of view and conclusions that may be different
either a little or a lot.
Here is an example from “Weather Bell” that shows many overall
similarities to NOAA and other models(i.e., warm in west, cool in east),
although they do show a fair difference in the North-Eastern portion
of the continent, but nothing that would suggest anything will be less
than a normal winter.
Graph # 9)
Below:
At this stage all we have from the Canadian Weather Network is
an average temperature winter outlook. The precipitation models
are certain to follow and we will post them when they are available.
Graph # 10)
Below: This is a month-by-month temp projection by Environment
Canada, for Dec/2018, Jan.2019, Feb.2019, Mar.2019. We like its
detail in two particular ways that we enthusiastically endorse,
the slightly warm forecast for January, and the slightly cool forecast
for March. Firstly, January is usually the coolest month, so a wee
touch of warmth not only makes for easier comfort, but brings us
up closer to Mother Natures own best snowmaking temps. Secondly,
March is always a great Ski month, however, it is also typically the
beginning of frequent “Thermal” influences, i.e., “Spring” factors, so the
potential of continuations of “Cool” are very important for the retention
of Winter-Like Ski/Board conditions and coverage.
Graph # 11)
Above/Below: Regarding One Common Aspect Of The Graphics In This Article...
They all show a very warm West Coast for the entire upcoming Winter cycle.
The possibility of extraordinary warmth on the West Coast may be a
valid consideration for planing your Ski/Board Holiday “East” at Tremblant?
Below: Due to the similarities we think this “FirstWeather” Winter forecast is
a great way to connect the potential dots, right back to the Old Farmers
Almanac forecast of “Cooler” and “Snowier”. The more agreement on
common forecast elements, the better we feel about a consensus developing
and having a greater chance of being correct.
Graph # 12)
If you had to have two permissions for a fantastic Winter Ski/Board
Season, they would be “Cooler” and “Snowier”, and we think there’s
an appropriate level of consensus within all the currently available
forecast data to support our own expectations for another above
average natural snowfall winter, and the consequent elevation of
conditions that abundant snow would facilitate.
(*1) 5 out of 6 of the last winters have been a collective 26.0096% snowier
than the 21 year average of 416cm's
You can go to our full Blog article on this at: https://tinyurl.com/y9sl2jko
or... we’ve included an excerpt as “reply”, posted below.
Please Note: This topic is under construction and we are
trying to format it in such a way that it makes sense during
that construction. This notice will be removed when the article
is complete, so if you still see it here, we encourage you to
check back. We also recommend that you go to our Blog article
“26.00096% Snowier Winters At Tremblant” @ https://tinyurl.com/y9sl2jko
for additional background.
We expect to add additional pre-season forecasting as it becomes
available. We will add such additional data as a posted “reply”, attached
to this topic, below.
.
Please Note: This topic has been updated through November 15th, 2018,
including a detailed, daily weather forecast forward to Ski Season Opening Day
and Weekend, November 22, through November 25, 2018.
Scroll/read down to page 2(“reply”),
for all updates posted in chronological sequence.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Original Post Dated October 3, 2018.
When Comparing Last Winters 557cm’s(18 feet, 3.25inches)
Natural Snowfall Excellence To What We Expect This Winter,
Here Is A Very Important Concept...
"Similar Results For Different Reasons.”
In the case of this “Winter”, coming up to the November 22, 2018
Tremblant Alpine Ski Season Opening Day, and looking forward
to a general overview of our seasonal forecast expectations, we
are anticipating...
The potential of a forth “Super Season”(500cm’s “+”) in a row!!!
It could be a very similar winter to not only last winter, but similar
to 5 out of 6 past winters, with 26.0096% above average natural
snowfall accumulations.(*1) (The 21 year Tremblant average is
416cm’s, last season was 557cm’s, and we call anything from
500cm’s(20% over average) and up, a “Super Season”.)
Here is why... "Similar Results For Different Reasons.”
In meteorological terms, for last winters above average snowfall
(which was the second highest recorded in 21 years), the main
driver was a “La Nina” Pacific Ocean event that generated a
stable, stationary cold air mass over the Gulf of Alaska that
pushed the Northern Branch of the Polar Jet Stream well over
Alaska, where it descended in a south-easterly diagonal path
over northern Canada to end up crossing over Tremblant.
With 557cm’s of natural, very well retained snowfall,
the second highest recorded in 21 years, Tremblant’s
conditions were extraordinarily fine.
This year, for 2018/19, there is every good indication that once
again, there may be a stable, stationary air mass over the Gulf
of Alaska that will likely produce the very same northerly deflection
of the Polar Jet Stream on near to the exact same path as last winter.
However... there is one hugely different co-factor, the stationary air mass will
be derived from warmth instead of cold, due to a Pacific Ocean "El Nino”.
Hence: "Similar Results For Different Reasons.”
Graph # 1)
Everything in this article contributes to why we feel there’s a very
high probability for an excellent Tremblant Ski Season coming up, so...
Right away, we’re starting with a commonly available 2018/19 forecast
that illustrates the Tremblant Ski Season weather overview, from our
friends at the Old Farmers Almanac(*2). In addition to their 227 years of
historical records and interpretations of observational weather patterns,
they now also incorporate AccuWeather.com modern scientific data
processes into their proprietary forecast modelling. This blend of old
and new methodology has given them a reasonably high rate of accuracy,
so we think this forecast has a high probability of being valid.
(*2) Two years ago we interviewed the publisher of the Old Farmers
Almanac for our Winter Forecast and we were thoroughly impressed
with the intelligent approach that links 227 years of history with some
of the best, modern, computer aided weather modelling.
Additionally, they have been right for the past two years
that we have closely examined their forecasting modalities.
Graph # 2)
Expanded Here’s Why:
We frequently refer to the NOAA(National Oceans and Atmospheric
Administration branch of the US Federal Government), long term
weather forecast data because it is widely recognized around the
World as a Gold Standard of forecast probability.
This season, they say “El Nino”.
Graph # 3)
What Is “El Nino”?
Graph # 4)
“What Are The Chances?"
When it comes to forecasting anything, especially weather, both
the general population as well as the Science-based professionals
want to improve predictive accuracy. One of the best ways to do
that is to combine all the various weather model formulas used
around the World into one composite graph to evaluate consensus.
The following NOAA graphic does exactly that.
Graph # 5)
The Pacific Ocean is the largest distinct water body on Earth, so
even “Big Picture” occurrences like “El Nino” are not always purely
defined and when spread out over thousands of Kilometres/Miles,
can have variations within the overall phenomenon that give them
repeatable sub-sets. Due to a lingering pool of very cool water adjacent
to equatorial South America, this years El Nino is being further defined
as a “Modoki” El Nino.(Modoki was the Japanese Weather Scientist who first
identified these variations in Pacific Ocean dynamics, so they are named
after him.)
Below: Pacific Ocean Surface Temp. January 1st, 2018 -------------->>>> Pacific Ocean Surface Temp. August 20th, 2018.
Graph # 6)
This variation of El Nino retains the warm Pacific zones centrally at the
equator as well as up at the Gulf of Alaska, but keeps a cool sector right
beside South America.
Graph # 7)
Historically repeated observations of this variation typically
generate the same weather patterns over North America that
look like this:
Graph # 8)
Not Everyone Agrees... at least on certain details...
Any topic with so many variables in forecasting elements is subject
to different points of view and conclusions that may be different
either a little or a lot.
Here is an example from “Weather Bell” that shows many overall
similarities to NOAA and other models(i.e., warm in west, cool in east),
although they do show a fair difference in the North-Eastern portion
of the continent, but nothing that would suggest anything will be less
than a normal winter.
Graph # 9)
Below:
At this stage all we have from the Canadian Weather Network is
an average temperature winter outlook. The precipitation models
are certain to follow and we will post them when they are available.
Graph # 10)
Below: This is a month-by-month temp projection by Environment
Canada, for Dec/2018, Jan.2019, Feb.2019, Mar.2019. We like its
detail in two particular ways that we enthusiastically endorse,
the slightly warm forecast for January, and the slightly cool forecast
for March. Firstly, January is usually the coolest month, so a wee
touch of warmth not only makes for easier comfort, but brings us
up closer to Mother Natures own best snowmaking temps. Secondly,
March is always a great Ski month, however, it is also typically the
beginning of frequent “Thermal” influences, i.e., “Spring” factors, so the
potential of continuations of “Cool” are very important for the retention
of Winter-Like Ski/Board conditions and coverage.
Graph # 11)
Above/Below: Regarding One Common Aspect Of The Graphics In This Article...
They all show a very warm West Coast for the entire upcoming Winter cycle.
The possibility of extraordinary warmth on the West Coast may be a
valid consideration for planing your Ski/Board Holiday “East” at Tremblant?
Below: Due to the similarities we think this “FirstWeather” Winter forecast is
a great way to connect the potential dots, right back to the Old Farmers
Almanac forecast of “Cooler” and “Snowier”. The more agreement on
common forecast elements, the better we feel about a consensus developing
and having a greater chance of being correct.
Graph # 12)
If you had to have two permissions for a fantastic Winter Ski/Board
Season, they would be “Cooler” and “Snowier”, and we think there’s
an appropriate level of consensus within all the currently available
forecast data to support our own expectations for another above
average natural snowfall winter, and the consequent elevation of
conditions that abundant snow would facilitate.
(*1) 5 out of 6 of the last winters have been a collective 26.0096% snowier
than the 21 year average of 416cm's
You can go to our full Blog article on this at: https://tinyurl.com/y9sl2jko
or... we’ve included an excerpt as “reply”, posted below.
Please Note: This topic is under construction and we are
trying to format it in such a way that it makes sense during
that construction. This notice will be removed when the article
is complete, so if you still see it here, we encourage you to
check back. We also recommend that you go to our Blog article
“26.00096% Snowier Winters At Tremblant” @ https://tinyurl.com/y9sl2jko
for additional background.
We expect to add additional pre-season forecasting as it becomes
available. We will add such additional data as a posted “reply”, attached
to this topic, below.
.