Winter Ski Season 2020/21 Weather Conditions Outlook
Posted: Wed Nov 11, 2020 6:49 pm
.
Please Note: There is some duplication in Weather Forecasting between this topic
and the topic labeled “2020/21 Startup Chronology” due to the relevance for both.
We have placed those technical graphics into a “Section 2”, posted below
as “Repy”, page 2.
--------------- Original SECTION 1 of this Post ----------------------
As usual, there are a range of complex factors that have
variable degrees of probability for the ultimate mix determining
the quality of the upcoming Tremblant Ski Season.
Due to the nature of weather forecasting, the possibility exists
that we, and/or any of the sources used, could be wrong. History
will show the reality of course, but what we will always try to feature
are the elements of the available forecast data that may contribute
to positive winter snowfall accumulations.
Fortunately, the consensus that we like to identify across
the spectrum of forecasting entities at this stage has the
very basic similarity of....
A Season With Tons Of Natural Snowfall!
There are differences of forecast opinion on the temperature
ranges, i.e., overall above or below average, but we’ll get into
that later on in this article.
Lets start with this one because we like the simplicity of
its central feature as depicted in its graphic display,
it represents the essence of any great ski season.
Please note the “Blue” monthly above average snowfall anomalies forecast
in the lower right corner of this graphic below(especially January).
11.11.20.Old.Farmers.Almanac.Quebec.Regional.Winter.Forecast.Projections.a.jpg
While there is scepticism about Almanac-style forecasting,
as you can see within the annotations of the above Old
Farmers Almanac, they have been using professional external
meteorological data sources(*) to blend into their proprietary
formula that originated in 1792. We think that may give
them some advantage, taking into account that no
weather forecasting can ever be taken to be certain.
(*) We did an interview with their publisher several
seasons ago and at that time their external weather
data source was AccuWeather, a very well known and
respected professional weather forecasting firm.
Our format for winter forecasting is simply, consensus,
amongst the very best sources we can find. The fortunate
part of that is that the very best sources are also consensus
driven, typically using combinations of modelling formulas
to end up with composite data assemblies where conclusions
are derived from positioning in the middle of the highs and lows.
The multi-red-line graphic in the top left-hand corner of the file
below represents an exact example of that concept. It shows the
probability computations of over a dozen scientific meteorological
models for this season which has generated the La Nina forecast
for winter 2020/21.
10.14.20.La.Nina.Weather.Factors.a.jpg
Below are August and September 2020 actual La Nina
imagery.
10.14.20.La.Nina.Weather.Factors.b.jpg
Here are additional La Nina references found in current
forecasting models for winter 2020/21.
10.14.20.La.Nina.Weather.Factors.c.jpg
Additional Great Lake Effect Snowfall:
This below is a two part/two graph examination of a Co-Factor
element we feel could play a very large part in this seasons
winter mix at Tremblant, especially when there are very fine
tipping points that can favourably shift the natural snowmaking
potential of west to east passing weather-maker systems.
We think the following detail regarding the warmer than usual
Great Lakes could be a substantial component of enriched
natural snowfall for Tremblant for the 2020/21 winter.
Great Lakes Effect Potential - Graph #1
Great Lakes Effect Potential - Graph #2
This below is an annotated USA snow/precipitation only model
that shows “The Worst Of Winter” in snowfall anomalies, indicating
the most significant extra snow over the whole continent.
We have made a graphic extension over the Great Lakes basin
and eastward over the relevant Canadian portion of the map
where we think the "Great Lakes Effect” enhancement to any
westward sourced “Worst Of Winter" snowfall weather systems
could occur.
Please review the paragraph in the right lower half of this
attachment.
11.12.20.Annotated.Snowfall.Anomaly.Forecast.a.jpg
.
Please Note: There is some duplication in Weather Forecasting between this topic
and the topic labeled “2020/21 Startup Chronology” due to the relevance for both.
We have placed those technical graphics into a “Section 2”, posted below
as “Repy”, page 2.
--------------- Original SECTION 1 of this Post ----------------------
As usual, there are a range of complex factors that have
variable degrees of probability for the ultimate mix determining
the quality of the upcoming Tremblant Ski Season.
Due to the nature of weather forecasting, the possibility exists
that we, and/or any of the sources used, could be wrong. History
will show the reality of course, but what we will always try to feature
are the elements of the available forecast data that may contribute
to positive winter snowfall accumulations.
Fortunately, the consensus that we like to identify across
the spectrum of forecasting entities at this stage has the
very basic similarity of....
A Season With Tons Of Natural Snowfall!
There are differences of forecast opinion on the temperature
ranges, i.e., overall above or below average, but we’ll get into
that later on in this article.
Lets start with this one because we like the simplicity of
its central feature as depicted in its graphic display,
it represents the essence of any great ski season.
Please note the “Blue” monthly above average snowfall anomalies forecast
in the lower right corner of this graphic below(especially January).
11.11.20.Old.Farmers.Almanac.Quebec.Regional.Winter.Forecast.Projections.a.jpg
While there is scepticism about Almanac-style forecasting,
as you can see within the annotations of the above Old
Farmers Almanac, they have been using professional external
meteorological data sources(*) to blend into their proprietary
formula that originated in 1792. We think that may give
them some advantage, taking into account that no
weather forecasting can ever be taken to be certain.
(*) We did an interview with their publisher several
seasons ago and at that time their external weather
data source was AccuWeather, a very well known and
respected professional weather forecasting firm.
Our format for winter forecasting is simply, consensus,
amongst the very best sources we can find. The fortunate
part of that is that the very best sources are also consensus
driven, typically using combinations of modelling formulas
to end up with composite data assemblies where conclusions
are derived from positioning in the middle of the highs and lows.
The multi-red-line graphic in the top left-hand corner of the file
below represents an exact example of that concept. It shows the
probability computations of over a dozen scientific meteorological
models for this season which has generated the La Nina forecast
for winter 2020/21.
10.14.20.La.Nina.Weather.Factors.a.jpg
Below are August and September 2020 actual La Nina
imagery.
10.14.20.La.Nina.Weather.Factors.b.jpg
Here are additional La Nina references found in current
forecasting models for winter 2020/21.
10.14.20.La.Nina.Weather.Factors.c.jpg
Additional Great Lake Effect Snowfall:
This below is a two part/two graph examination of a Co-Factor
element we feel could play a very large part in this seasons
winter mix at Tremblant, especially when there are very fine
tipping points that can favourably shift the natural snowmaking
potential of west to east passing weather-maker systems.
We think the following detail regarding the warmer than usual
Great Lakes could be a substantial component of enriched
natural snowfall for Tremblant for the 2020/21 winter.
Great Lakes Effect Potential - Graph #1
Great Lakes Effect Potential - Graph #2
This below is an annotated USA snow/precipitation only model
that shows “The Worst Of Winter” in snowfall anomalies, indicating
the most significant extra snow over the whole continent.
We have made a graphic extension over the Great Lakes basin
and eastward over the relevant Canadian portion of the map
where we think the "Great Lakes Effect” enhancement to any
westward sourced “Worst Of Winter" snowfall weather systems
could occur.
Please review the paragraph in the right lower half of this
attachment.
11.12.20.Annotated.Snowfall.Anomaly.Forecast.a.jpg
.