T360 Middle Of The Night Shift Apres Ski Edit @ 2:51 A.M.
The best we can say is that this very normal Fall thermal
event was short, just a handful of hours.
It needs to be clearly stated that base regional ground levels
got a lot of rain, but the cooler Mountain elevations got a mix
of sleet, some rain, primarily at Sud/South base, and also got
big, fat snowflakes in heavy, thick quantities at times.
It could have been a lot worse.
11.30.22.Summit.Weather.Conditions.Observations.At.10.15.AM.a.jpg
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Much of the day actually had very fine technical skiing that was
stealthy silent because the big fat thickly falling snowflake part
generated a wonderfully smooth layer that had a super-cushioning
effect.
It was absolutely a Descente Poncho day, and at times, vision
was an issue that was difficult to compensate for. Photography
was just this side of useless with plastering wet snow and/or sleet.
11.30.22.Summit.Weather.Conditions.Observations.At.6.55.PM.a.jpg
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More on all this in the morning, however at this moment it is -6 C and
dusty blowing snow at the Summit, so at least winter is back on track.
12.1.22.Middle.Of.The.Night.Shift.Weather.Conditions.Observations.At.2.43.AM.With.Zoom.To.Temp.Excerpt.a.jpg
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Repeat from above...
"It could have been a lot worse", but...
You will need good edges for tomorrow.
------------------- 7:17 A.M. Orig. Post --------------------
14(*) Open Trails On Sud/South And Nord/North Sectors At #Tremblant .
A Day Of Many, Many “Wild Cards” That Could
Generate Either Significant Benefit Or Adversity.
You’ll want to consult with these folks...
11.28.22.Summit.Info.Ski.Consult.Zone.At.Gondola.Peak.b.jpg
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It’s An Anything Can Happen Day!
The reason the potential for today is so complex is that at
a hight temp., now reduced to +4 C, plus rain forecast at
Sud/Lower base levels, up on the Mountains higher elevations
that are typically -4 C cooler, this entire cycle could be all
snowfall, and lots of it, almost as easily as it could be a wet
and rainy day of adverse weather.
Right now, we’d have to call the odd’s at 50/50, and we simply
will not know exactly how this will play out beyond a minute by
minute, play by play observation of Mother Natures game plan
for today.
It’s “Fall”, it’s November 30, it’s "anything is possible" when
temp’s float across the Zero C mark. “BUT”... there is legitimate
reason for us to personally favour the snowy potential and
we will explain that in the “Weather Notes”, below.
In the mean-time, what we enjoyed yesterday...
and the basis for the initial quality today...
11.29.22.Nord.North.Ptit.Bonheur.Immaculate.Superb.Groomed.Snow.c.jpg
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Absolutely superb “Front Side Carving”, where either smooth cruising
or athletic, skill testing, lay ‘em over sideways high performance
carving is within the range of just about every open trail at Tremblant.
There is no doubt that the beginning of every/any season favours
the technical skills that take advantage of groomed early opened
trails. There’s just not enough accumulated snow yet for any degree
of public safety in the Sous Bois, Hors Piste, Bush/Glades categories, yet.
So, what there is though, is the opportunity to do a lot of very high
quality early season muscle/skills conditioning over an abundance
of open terrain, with an abundance of natural snowfall, all of which
are above average for this time of year.
It’s like going to the giant gym of Mother Nature and doing “Rep’s”
for fitness, muscle durability and skills building, but on surfaces
that are primarily as smooth as a golf course fairway.
It’s a totally easy way to kick-start your season.
11.29.22.Summit.Level.La.Crete.White.Winter.Wonderful.b.jpg
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Weather Notes:
The reason we are personally favouring the potential of “Snowy”
today is because the hourly Resort base level temp forecast
has been reduced from what was at one point +6 C, to down
now at + 4 C. Combine that with the current elevation differential
which at this moment is -5C, showing the Base at +1 C, the Summit
at -4 C, and what that tells us is that there may be cold air masses
in the lower atmosphere that are descending over Tremblant, where
those air masses over the Mountain may be even considerably colder yet.
Mother Nature’s own best natural snowmaking temp. is somewhere
around -7 C, so for that reason, it’s not difficult to imagine the
moisture laden upper atmospheric air/cloud masses being at very
close to ideal temps for snow.
We could be wrong.
- 11.30.22.Weather.Data.a.jpg (972.1 KiB) Viewed 1666 times
---------- Supplementary Weather Factors Affecting Today’s Conditions: --------------
One of the biggest “Wild Cards” today is what we think could
be the influence of the Polar Vortex. If you look at the “stack”
of weather layers above us, we have at ground level and the
lower atmosphere the active Texas low pressure system, then
at about 10 kilometres up, we have the West-to-East Jet Stream,
then at heights up to 50 kilometres, there’s the cyclonic action
of the Polar Vortex, so this is a very big concentration of natural
forces which are not completely predictable in a mixed outcome.
What we think may be a tipping point in favour of snow is the
descending injection of very cold air from the current Southerly
wave of the Polar Vortex.
- 11.25.22.Weather.Forecast.Data.b.jpg (717.75 KiB) Viewed 1638 times
Conditions Notes:
To begin with, up to around 10:00 A.M., we think the early season
excellence that was so wide-spread yesterday, will be there, completely
intact, and... maybe even better where freshly overnight groomed.
Due to the weather forecast it is very likely that attendance will
be low, so there should be negligible traffic stress on the trail
network, further enhancing durable quality for those brave, dare
we say intelligent, souls that laugh at weather forecasts. There
is roughly a 95.624% chance it will be a Descente Poncho day at
some point.
Once the active precipitation begins, it will be an hour-by-hour,
maybe even a minute-by-minute evolution that could go either way.
If it continues on with the current very low cloud ceiling, vision could
be a issue with either fog/sleet/wet snow/rain/freezing rain, fine
cloud mist, or any other form of airborne moisture, coating/covering/
obscuring goggle lens. Time for yellow-lens industrial safety glasses
if you want to restore any kind of useful contrast in your forward view,
otherwise, bumps and/or contours may be difficult to recognize in the
50 shades of grey.
Clinically speaking, even if it gets warm and wet, it will be nothing
but really great spring-like skiing of soft, very forgiving snow that
notwithstanding atmospheric interference, is always fun and easy.
14/102(*) Open Trails on the Archival Copy of Official Open Trails,
Grooming, Snowmaking, Lift Status and Mountain Conditions
for November 30, 2022, Courtesy of Tremblant.ca
- Archival Copy of Official Open Trails,
Grooming, Snowmaking, Lift Status and Mountain Conditions Courtesy of Tremblant.ca - 11.30.22.Trail.Status.Data.a.jpg (618.06 KiB) Viewed 1679 times
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