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31(*) Open Trails On Sud/South And Nord North Sectors At #Tremblant .


Calm, Cool, And Waiting For A Big Bunch Of Mother Natures Snowfall.


Forecasts indicate between 20 and 40 cm’s on Friday?



12.12.22.Lac.T.Views.Mt.T.Sunny.Flat.Calm.c.jpg

The Weather Is The Forecast News.


An approaching “Colorado Low” is going to crash into
a warm, moist South Eastern air-flow over the Eastern
side of the Great Lakes Basin on Thursday.

The resultant storm system may have a linear span
of over 3,000 Kilometres.

It could be really, really big natural snowfall dumped
right on Tremblant.

More on all of that both in today’s Weather Notes below, plus
on a forward evolving basis, as the storm system develops.




In the mean-time, what is open has been very
high quality on an overall basis. Here is a typical
example:



12.12.22.Nansen.POV.Up.At.Mi.Chemin.b.jpg


Future New Opening Terrain Snowmaking Development Updates:

(Please Note: These are only 2 of many, please review
the snowmaking icons in the Official data below for
additional insights.)



12.12.22.Versant.Soleil.Snowmaking.Observations.c.jpg


As we are not privy to any official planning, this is a theory,
and we could be wrong, but... What we think is possible in this
department is that there may be a considerable effort put into
establishing rough fill-in bases of blown snow to cover up all
the irregularities of naturally bumpy Mountain terrain, like
what you see beginning to happen in the McCulloch example
below. That approach would end up rendering flat but course
primary trail bases that will act like velcro to the falling
snow forecast to arrive later this week. Once the big initial
dump has occurred, a finishing/blending grooming integration
operation could yield a very desirable mix result with a high
ratio of optimized natural snow retained in the final product.





12.12.22.TGV.Quad.Views.McCulloch.Summit.Pitch.Snowmaking.Grooming.Observations.d.jpg


What needs to kept in mind is that very active snow storm
systems are generally accompanied by very active wind profiles.
In our observations, the challenge then becomes how to retain
the most possible snowfall over wide-open, direct wind facing
trails where too smooth actually allows the wind to push snow
into the surrounding bush. We have observed in previous similar
circumstances that when a rough surface is left before a snow storm,
it gives the blowing snow something to hold on to before it can get
propelled up/over/across/off. Our theory is that it may be an intentional
strategy on the part of Mountain Op’s, but even if it is not, the net effect
is the same.

If observations in the days preceding the snowstorms continue
to show a rough cut trend in trail surface readiness/preparations,
we’ll report that as support evidence for our theory.

Of Course... This theory could be unique to developing trails
not yet open. Secondly, there are entire Mountain Sous Bois,
Hors Piste sectors that depend on snow being blown into the
bush, however, those zones are largely within the Edge and
Versant Nord/North Sectors where they have a primary
benefit of being behind the shelter of the Summit in the
face of prevailing Sou-West winds. These sectors tend to
get a lot of back-fill, drift-in snowfall that gets shoved up
and over the ramp-like shape of the Versant Sud/South
Side peak, where it settles down into Nord/North oriented
slopes, out of the direct wind force.

If, if, if... this huge storm system produces the upper limits
of the potential snowfall anywhere close to the 40 cm’s
currently speculated, not only could it be one of the most
wonderful powder days in recent history, but it could help
shape the conditions for the balance of the season with a
single game-changer blizzard. Maybe.

The bottom line is it is potential too big to ignore, so you
absolutely need to make “just in case” plans to be here,
if possible.




Weather Notes:


For today specifically, what we really like, what is our
most favourite winter weather co-factor...

A more-or-less repeat of yesterday’s low wind speed
and a low numeric spread to the peak wind gust velocities.

Looking forward...

What we really, really like, what is our most favourite
primary winter forecast factor is 7 days of snowfall.

See additional detail below.





Current Storm-track Forecasting Models:


With regard to Please Note (c), below...
For additional context, please note the temperatures indicated above
for December 16, 17, 18, in the 14 day long range outlook.







Conditions Notes:

It was a wee bit icier than we had expected yesterday, but we
think that should be completely different, and better, today
because whatever it was that firmed things up, should have
been ground up into teeny-tiny bits by the grooming night-shift.



-------------- 10:05 A.M. Insert Update: -----------------------


Please Note:
Flip-Flop Temp. Inversion With Base At -7C Colder Than Summit.


12.13.22.Weather.Conditions.Observations.At.10.05.AM.a.jpg

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31/102(*) Open Trails on the Archival Copy of Official Open Trails,
Grooming, Snowmaking, Lift Status and Mountain Conditions
for December 13, 2022, Courtesy of Tremblant.ca





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