Science, Art, Risk And Probability...
Weather Forecasting is as much an "Art" as it is a "Science"
where people "Risk" a prediction based on "Probability".
The Human experience loves to talk about the weather,
but no matter what "weather" happens, any day on the
Open slopes of Tremblant is a great day!
With as much snow as we typically get at Tremblant....
you just can't go wrong anyway!
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General References, Tremblant Winter Snowfall Forecasts:
There is always a risk involved with making weather related projections.
People with Doctorates in various sciences of physical, computer
or any other applicable studies, spend lifetimes attempting to become
more precise in the weather forecasting field where they are frequently
exposed to criticism for being wrong.
That does not mean they don't keep on trying though, so we take
that to heart when it comes to anticipating or being prepared for
very big Snow events, such as we expect multiple times each season
here at Tremblant.
Frequently, we will have 5 day weather models from the
Weather Network that show tremendous potential new snow
over the 5 day period and we will typically post accordingly in
the daily forums.
Anticipation...
From day to day, those weather models may forecast more, less,
then more again, and then less... for the same future time, so realistically,
we have to accept the possibility that there may be "more or less"
"today", than the "more or less" they thought "yesterday".
Whewww... it's getting confusing... or maybe not... maybe the real pattern
lies in the convergence of "More" with "When", because if this daily change
in forecasting "More" or "Less" just happens to generate snow that occurs on
an actual "More" cycle, we can and do get tons of Snow!
The real risk we see is in missing even the potential of the Big Snow
if you're a local or regional Tremblant fan that has the option of either
being here or not, when it happens.
It's kinda' like going to the Casino of Mother Nature...
You'd like to win... There's a chance you could win...
But you'll never know unless you go.
In the case of Tremblant fans that can make it, the odds are
actually better, statistically speaking, than going to a Casino, because
not only will there be a tremendous bonus if all the anticipated snow
occurs, but even if it doesn't, you still get to Ski or Board on the existing
signature Tremblant winter surfaces that are already World Class.
From that perspective, it's a win, or win big proposition you can't lose on.
Of course there are always going to be the "Nay Sayers" that say "You spoke
too soon", regarding forecast snow fall, but that is illogical. Mother Nature will
do as she pleases, and the superstitious musings of humans on either side of
the topic will not effect the final outcome, great or little. "Que Sera, Sera"
Therefore, we say, be ready anyway and "Get Here When You Can" to enjoy
Tremblant to the fullness of each and every day for as many days as you can
Ski or Board this beautiful Mountain, but we will always keep our fingers crossed
for both Good Luck and Big Snow forecasts, and we'll keep on reporting them
just the same.
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Additional Winter Weather Notes:
Any Time There's A Southerly Directional Wind Component...
particularly with a Gulf Of Mexico originated system as we have from
time to time, there's a large probability of Orographic Snowfall over/on
Tremblant that can generate localized Blowing Drifting and Accumulation
rates substantially greater than the ground/base level statistical totals either
actual,or forecast.
Oh Yeah... we love that....
For those not familiar with "Orographic" precipitation, it is basically
when warm moisture laden air is forced by wind direction, up into cooler
air masses by a large geographical feature it encounters that acts as a
ramp.
When the warm moisture comes into contact with the cooler upper
level air, it causes the moisture to condense and form precipitation, which
in winter around Tremblant, means "Snow".
This is where Tremblant enjoys a distinct advantage over its regional
competitors. As Tremblant is the highest skiable peak above sea level
in the area, it is the only one that gets a reliable Orographic pattern on
a regular basis.
Furthermore, Tremblant's more Northerly latitude means that when the
regional ambient temps are close to the freezing mark at both the beginning
and end of the season, the farther North you are here, the better the chance
of any form/type of precipitation being "Snow" as opposed to "Rain" or "Sleet"
as many more Southerly resorts are likely to experience.
Consequently, Tremblant's Winter season and therefore surface conditions,
tend to be more consistently "Winter" from start to finish.
This Northerly Latitude also favours Tremblant's position in relation
to the upper atmospheric "Jet Stream" that can often separate "cool"
above and "warm" below, further enhancing the probability of consistent
Winter" conditions.
Of course there are exceptions to every weather generalization, however
"Winter" and "North" are always more compatible than "Winter"
and "South" in overall trends.
Here's a sample of an "Orographic" Snowfall day from Mid-January
on Tremblant's North Side.
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