Early Weather Forecasts for Winter 2018/19

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Early Weather Forecasts for Winter 2018/19

Post by T360 »


Please Note: This topic has been updated through November 15th, 2018,
including a detailed, daily weather forecast forward to Ski Season Opening Day
and Weekend, November 22, through November 25, 2018.

Scroll/read down to page 2(“reply”),
for all updates posted in chronological sequence.


Original Post Dated October 3, 2018.

When Comparing Last Winters 557cm’s(18 feet, 3.25inches)
Natural Snowfall Excellence To What We Expect This Winter,
Here Is A Very Important Concept...

"Similar Results For Different Reasons.”

In the case of this “Winter”, coming up to the November 22, 2018
Tremblant Alpine Ski Season Opening Day, and looking forward
to a general overview of our seasonal forecast expectations, we
are anticipating...

The potential of a forth “Super Season”(500cm’s “+”) in a row!!!
It could be a very similar winter to not only last winter, but similar
to 5 out of 6 past winters, with 26.0096% above average natural
snowfall accumulations.
(*1) (The 21 year Tremblant average is
416cm’s, last season was 557cm’s, and we call anything from
500cm’s(20% over average) and up, a “Super Season”.)

Here is why... "Similar Results For Different Reasons.”

In meteorological terms, for last winters above average snowfall
(which was the second highest recorded in 21 years), the main
driver was a “La Nina” Pacific Ocean event that generated a
stable, stationary cold air mass over the Gulf of Alaska that
pushed the Northern Branch of the Polar Jet Stream well over
Alaska, where it descended in a south-easterly diagonal path
over northern Canada to end up crossing over Tremblant.
With 557cm’s of natural, very well retained snowfall,
the second highest recorded in 21 years, Tremblant’s
conditions were extraordinarily fine.

This year, for 2018/19, there is every good indication that once
again, there may be a stable, stationary air mass over the Gulf
of Alaska that will likely produce the very same northerly deflection
of the Polar Jet Stream on near to the exact same path as last winter.
However... there is one hugely different co-factor, the stationary air mass will
be derived from warmth instead of cold, due to a Pacific Ocean "El Nino”.

Hence: "Similar Results For Different Reasons.”
Graph # 1)

10.2.18.Winter.Forecast.Graphic.1.jpg (234.8 KiB) Viewed 7641 times

Everything in this article contributes to why we feel there’s a very
high probability for an excellent Tremblant Ski Season coming up, so...

Right away, we’re starting with a commonly available 2018/19 forecast
that illustrates the Tremblant Ski Season weather overview, from our
friends at the Old Farmers Almanac(*2). In addition to their 227 years of
historical records and interpretations of observational weather patterns,
they now also incorporate AccuWeather.com modern scientific data
processes into their proprietary forecast modelling. This blend of old
and new methodology has given them a reasonably high rate of accuracy,
so we think this forecast has a high probability of being valid.

(*2) Two years ago we interviewed the publisher of the Old Farmers
Almanac for our Winter Forecast and we were thoroughly impressed
with the intelligent approach that links 227 years of history with some
of the best, modern, computer aided weather modelling.
Additionally, they have been right for the past two years
that we have closely examined their forecasting modalities.

Graph # 2)
10.2.18.Winter.Forecast.Graphic.G.jpg (595.23 KiB) Viewed 7643 times

Expanded Here’s Why:

We frequently refer to the NOAA(National Oceans and Atmospheric
Administration branch of the US Federal Government), long term
weather forecast data because it is widely recognized around the
World as a Gold Standard of forecast probability.

This season, they say “El Nino”.

Graph # 3)
10.2.18.Winter.Forecast.Graphic.A.jpg (371.28 KiB) Viewed 7643 times

What Is “El Nino”?

Graph # 4)
10.2.18.Winter.Forecast.Graphic.B.jpg (328.13 KiB) Viewed 7643 times

“What Are The Chances?"

When it comes to forecasting anything, especially weather, both
the general population as well as the Science-based professionals
want to improve predictive accuracy. One of the best ways to do
that is to combine all the various weather model formulas used
around the World into one composite graph to evaluate consensus.
The following NOAA graphic does exactly that.

Graph # 5)
10.2.18.Winter.Forecast.Graphic.C.jpg (351.42 KiB) Viewed 7643 times

The Pacific Ocean is the largest distinct water body on Earth, so
even “Big Picture” occurrences like “El Nino” are not always purely
defined and when spread out over thousands of Kilometres/Miles,
can have variations within the overall phenomenon that give them
repeatable sub-sets. Due to a lingering pool of very cool water adjacent
to equatorial South America, this years El Nino is being further defined
as a “Modoki” El Nino.(Modoki was the Japanese Weather Scientist who first
identified these variations in Pacific Ocean dynamics, so they are named
after him.)

Below: Pacific Ocean Surface Temp. January 1st, 2018 -------------->>>> Pacific Ocean Surface Temp. August 20th, 2018.

Graph # 6)
10.2.18.Winter.Forecast.Graphic.D.jpg (315.62 KiB) Viewed 7641 times

This variation of El Nino retains the warm Pacific zones centrally at the
equator as well as up at the Gulf of Alaska, but keeps a cool sector right
beside South America.

Graph # 7)
10.2.18.Winter.Forecast.Graphic.E.jpg (197.49 KiB) Viewed 7641 times

Historically repeated observations of this variation typically
generate the same weather patterns over North America that
look like this:

Graph # 8)
10.2.18.Winter.Forecast.Graphic.F.jpg (275.68 KiB) Viewed 7641 times

Not Everyone Agrees... at least on certain details...

Any topic with so many variables in forecasting elements is subject
to different points of view and conclusions that may be different
either a little or a lot.

Here is an example from “Weather Bell” that shows many overall
similarities to NOAA and other models(i.e., warm in west, cool in east),
although they do show a fair difference in the North-Eastern portion
of the continent, but nothing that would suggest anything will be less
than a normal winter.

Graph # 9)
10.2.18.Winter.Forecast.Graphic.H.jpg (193.2 KiB) Viewed 7641 times

At this stage all we have from the Canadian Weather Network is
an average temperature winter outlook. The precipitation models
are certain to follow and we will post them when they are available.

Graph # 10)
10.2.18.Winter.Forecast.Graphic.I.jpg (126.79 KiB) Viewed 7640 times

Below: This is a month-by-month temp projection by Environment
Canada, for Dec/2018, Jan.2019, Feb.2019, Mar.2019. We like its
detail in two particular ways that we enthusiastically endorse,
the slightly warm forecast for January, and the slightly cool forecast
for March. Firstly, January is usually the coolest month, so a wee
touch of warmth not only makes for easier comfort, but brings us
up closer to Mother Natures own best snowmaking temps. Secondly,
March is always a great Ski month, however, it is also typically the
beginning of frequent “Thermal” influences, i.e., “Spring” factors, so the
potential of continuations of “Cool” are very important for the retention
of Winter-Like Ski/Board conditions and coverage.

Graph # 11)
10.2.18.Winter.Forecast.Graphic.J.jpg (438.52 KiB) Viewed 7640 times

Above/Below: Regarding One Common Aspect Of The Graphics In This Article...
They all show a very warm West Coast for the entire upcoming Winter cycle.
The possibility of extraordinary warmth on the West Coast may be a
valid consideration for planing your Ski/Board Holiday “East” at Tremblant?

Below: Due to the similarities we think this “FirstWeather” Winter forecast is
a great way to connect the potential dots, right back to the Old Farmers
Almanac forecast of “Cooler” and “Snowier”. The more agreement on
common forecast elements, the better we feel about a consensus developing
and having a greater chance of being correct.

Graph # 12)
10.2.18.Winter.Forecast.Graphic.K.jpg (250.42 KiB) Viewed 7640 times

If you had to have two permissions for a fantastic Winter Ski/Board
Season, they would be “Cooler” and “Snowier”, and we think there’s
an appropriate level of consensus within all the currently available
forecast data to support our own expectations for another above
average natural snowfall winter, and the consequent elevation of
conditions that abundant snow would facilitate.

(*1) 5 out of 6 of the last winters have been a collective 26.0096% snowier
than the 21 year average of 416cm's

You can go to our full Blog article on this at: https://tinyurl.com/y9sl2jko
or... we’ve included an excerpt as “reply”, posted below.

Please Note: This topic is under construction and we are
trying to format it in such a way that it makes sense during
that construction. This notice will be removed when the article
is complete, so if you still see it here, we encourage you to
check back. We also recommend that you go to our Blog article
“26.00096% Snowier Winters At Tremblant” @ https://tinyurl.com/y9sl2jko
for additional background.

We expect to add additional pre-season forecasting as it becomes
available. We will add such additional data as a posted “reply”, attached
to this topic, below.

The Tremblant360.com Team
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Posts: 3158
Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2008 2:53 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Early Weather Forecasts for Winter 2018/19

Post by T360 »


Additional Winter 2018/19 Forecast Models:

Due to very specific Colorado and Texas Low references contained
in the following excerpts from TransCanada Weather.ca, we find
their forecast to be not only one of the most supporting, but
interesting as well. As individual weather-makers, we refer to
Colorado/Texas lows in our daily journal reporting frequently
because they are often the cause of very big individual snow storms
or blizzard events. Naturally, anything that suggests “More Frequent”
and “Snowsqualls” in a forecast model is a very desirable element
in expectations for above average annual snow accumulations.

Graph # 13
10.2.18.Winter.Forecast.Graphic.L.jpg (217.03 KiB) Viewed 7615 times


Additional Forecast Data To Be Added As Available


Oct. 14, 2018 Update:

Below: CFS Precipitation Models for Dec. 2018, Jan. 2019, Feb. 2019.
In addition to the annotations attached to the document below:
It is important to note that the December model has a very
small “Green”(above average) zone that is difficult to see
above Montreal. If you gave this December a close proximity
probability to Tremblant, this 3 month set could actually be in
agreement with the “Old Farmers Almanac” precipitation models
for the same months, as shown in the original post as “Graph #2”
above. We would equate that to another element of “Consensus”
across forecasting models/sources, suggesting higher probability
that we might actually get a lot of the natural snowfall potential
that these multiple sources may have forecast agreement on.

Graph # 14
10.2.18.Winter.Forecast.Graphic.m.jpg (366.04 KiB) Viewed 7554 times

--------------- October 25, 2018 Updates --------------------

Graph # 15
Screen Shot 2018-10-24 at 10.35.52 AM.jpg
Screen Shot 2018-10-24 at 10.35.52 AM.jpg (248.23 KiB) Viewed 7534 times

The above Environment Canada Temperature projections show
comparisons to blended averages of normal, however it is important
to note that at the time of this update, so far this October there have
been 15 days with below normal temps, as compared to last year
when there were 21 days with above average temps.

The real significance of that for Tremblant is the early cooling
of the Mountains exposed surfaces that will be drawing summer
warmth out and setting the stage for easier/quicker/sooner frost

It is at this stage that we also welcome the typically Fall rainy weather
because water is one of Mother Natures best thermal conductors,
so the mechanical transfer of heat out of, and cold into the Mountains
substrates is enhanced by water saturation.

Below: If we add some photographic evidence, what we see as a consequence
of the 15 days below average are two sample scenes below from
October 21, 2018 that we might not normally expect to see the same
way until the beginning of November.

www.Tremblant360.com photo. All rights reserved.
www.Tremblant360.com photo. All rights reserved.
10.21.18.Old.Village.Views.Mt.T.Weather.Observations.a.jpg (580.5 KiB) Viewed 7534 times

Statistically speaking, it would be unlikely that these early snows
would “stick”, i.e., stay intact without melting, before real winter
arrives, however, there is no doubt that they will be a contribution
to the early lowering of surface layer temperatures.

www.Tremblant360.com photo. All rights reserved.
www.Tremblant360.com photo. All rights reserved.
10.21.18.Nord.North.Lowell.Thomas.New.Quad.Base.Construction.Weather.Observations.d.jpg (595.93 KiB) Viewed 7534 times

Above: Not only can we see a very early snowy ambiance in this
mid-level Nord, North Side scene, but we also have a great view
of the brand new Lowell Thomas High Speed Detachable Quad Base
that is replacing the old fixed triple chair. We estimate the faster
accent time on this speedy new lift should be half, maybe even
a wee bit less than half of the old one.

As far as longer term Winter updates...

These below are the very latest NOAA projections for Dec. 2018,
Jan. 2019, and Feb. 2019. Precipitation is being shown as average
here and temps a bit above average, but not so much that it would
cause any concern because of the overall sub-zero’s that we have
during these months anyway.

If you scroll back up to “Graph # 8” in this topic, you will see
a NOAA projection that was done last summer for the same
Dec/Jan/Feb period with quite a different Temp outlook. We
are not sure why that has changed so much with only NOAA,
but we will monitor all other sources for opinions and add them

Additionally, as we have stated before, warmer than average in
January and February can be very beneficial if it keeps the Mountain
up closer to Mother Natures own, best snowmaking temp’s
at around -7C +/-.(Date of NOAA issue @10.18.18)

Graph # 16
Screen Shot 2018-10-24 at 10.33.24 AM.jpg
Screen Shot 2018-10-24 at 10.33.24 AM.jpg (207.04 KiB) Viewed 7534 times

For those that are sharp enough to have noted the NOAA Oct.12 projections
shown above in Graph # 14, for March with above average precip., and
are wondering why the Graph # 16 shows average, it’s because Graph #14
is individual months and Graph # 16 is 3 months blended, so the individual
months may easily vary.

Summary October 25, 2018 Update:

There is every good reason to support the ongoing favourable
probability for another above average snowfall winter at Tremblant.
Where we see “Wild Cards” in variable factors, so-far those would
all be assets for either comfortable temps or greater snowfall.
Based on the comparison of cooler days this October to the warmer
days of last October, one could even speculate at least the possibility
of a better start this year, and last year was an all-time record amount
for Opening Day terrain.

November 2018 Updates:

Graph # 17
Screen Shot 2018-11-09 at 9.50.32 AM.jpg
Screen Shot 2018-11-09 at 9.50.32 AM.jpg (345.51 KiB) Viewed 7396 times

Graph # 18
Screen Shot 2018-11-09 at 9.44.43 AM.jpg
Screen Shot 2018-11-09 at 9.44.43 AM.jpg (350.69 KiB) Viewed 7396 times

Graph # 19
Screen Shot 2018-11-09 at 9.26.49 AM.jpg
Screen Shot 2018-11-09 at 9.26.49 AM.jpg (358.2 KiB) Viewed 7396 times

Graph # 20 below is the final addition to this topic and
it is also the way this article can connect the dots from
forecast to actual experience. These projections indicate
an extraordinary early and bountiful start to the 2018/19
#Tremblant Ski Season, and consequently we have every
good reason to anticipate another “Super Season” of
substantially above the 21 year averages for both snow
accumulations and the Alpine Snow Sports Trail Network quality.

Graph # 20
Screen Shot 2018-11-14 at 10.30.15 PM.jpg
Screen Shot 2018-11-14 at 10.30.15 PM.jpg (305.29 KiB) Viewed 7396 times


Below: Excerpt from our Blog Article:

“Coincidence” or “Trend”?

(*1) 5 out of 6 of the last Tremblant winters have been
a collective 26.0096% snowier than the 21 year average of 416cm’s.

2018.6.Year.Snowfall.Stats.Graph.a copy.jpg
2018.6.Year.Snowfall.Stats.Graph.a copy.jpg (231.76 KiB) Viewed 7639 times

“Coincidence” or “Trend”?

Our “Trend” theory is that as Global Warming may be causing a
slight increase in average temps, this may actually be bringing
Tremblant up into Mother Natures own best natural snow making
temps at roughly -7C(+/- 3C), more frequently(+). Furthermore,
at regionally critical tipping points at or around the freezing mark,
Tremblant also seems to remain favourably on the lower temp
sub-zero range more frequently. We think this may be resulting in
a higher consistency of thermal-free days when compared to it’s
regional peers at slightly lower, more southerly latitudes.(#)

This is not the first time we’ve reported on these observations
or our theoretical attempt at understanding them. The fact remains
that the experience of the past 6 winters are snowfall measurements
that are a matter of record.

We think this could develop into a more statistically supportable
trend of snowier Tremblant winters, and that over time these
near or over 500cm”+” snowfall winters could become more
common?(^^) If that trend was to become the case, the benefits would
include far higher probabilities of the most desirable winter qualities
for pre-booked Alpine Snow Sport vacations and/or Seasons Pass

Examinations of our daily archives will show that there is optimized
quality virtually every single day the Mountain is open, regardless of
any seasons individual snowfall, or weather cycles. However, there is
no doubt that the added mechanical advantage of abundant natural
snow, especially if it becomes a statistical trend, facilitates an easy
elevation to levels of extraordinary quality.

(#) For example, by recorded Meteorological Statistics, Killington Vermont
now only has 1 month per year when the average daily temperature is
below 32 degrees F., Zero degrees C, which is January. Tremblant has
three sub-zero C months, December, January, and February. Our hypothesis is
that generally, there are significant benefits to consistent snow surface quality,
stability, retention, ease of all skill level performance and seasonal durability,
of 3 X more average sub-zero C, genuine winter days. Of course there may
be individual exceptions/variations to any weather rules from season to season,
or within seasons. However, snow does not stay snow without sustained temps
below freezing, so within the 5 months that winter typically spans, sub-zero C
will always remain as the primary permission for thermal-free surface quality.

(^^) We had our research data run through an Augmented Dickey-Fuller
Unit Root Test on SNOWFALL by a T360 fan who happens to be a University
Professor that is a Peer Reviewed Research Author, published in multiple
journals including “The Economist”, and the test conclusion was deemed
“Statistically Significant”. Merci SC!

----------------------- End of Excerpt -----------------------------

Bottom Line Outlook For Tremblant This Season...

2.12.18.Summit.Versant.Nord.North.Views.Beauchemin.Haut.Upper.c.jpg (561.01 KiB) Viewed 7532 times

The Tremblant360.com Team
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