Winter 2019/20 Preliminary Seasonal Weather Forecast

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T360
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Winter 2019/20 Preliminary Seasonal Weather Forecast

Post by T360 »

The Tremblant360 Winter Ski Season Weather Forecast:

As we explain below, there are some potentially variable
outcomes, however the majority of the forecast data suggests...


It’s Going To Be A Long, Durable, And Very Snowy Winter!

-------------- 11.20.19 The Weather Network - Insert Update -------------------
Screenshots Courtesy of The Weather Network.
Screenshots Courtesy of The Weather Network.
11.20.19.The.Weather.Network.Winter.2019.20.Temp.Precip.Update.Graphics.a.jpg (827.7 KiB) Viewed 1477 times
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For the reasons we outline below, we think the Winter
Ski Season of 2019/20 will be similar to recent, previous
seasons that have been record setting in natural
snowfall accumulations and durable, very high quality
trail base conditions, from virtually Opening Day,
to Last Run. There are some tipping point overall
regional temp. seasonal factors around Zero C though,
so Mother Nature reserves the right to influence
the results without any notice to humans.


The Tremblant360 annual Winter Season forecast
is the result of a composite assembly of opinions
and models shared by multiple professional weather
forecasting entities, combined with the trends and
patterns we see physically developing on the Mountain
every season. In the past we have referred to this
process as a figurative “Venn Diagram” where the
common elements that are shared by the majority
of forecasting models have the highest probability of
becoming reality. “Safety In Numbers”(?), might be
another way of putting it because we all know that
forecasts can be variable in degrees of accuracy, so
while there may be a wide consensus of anticipated
conditions, there also has to be the caveat that Mother
Nature does not always follow or adhere to the expectations
of Human Beings who attempt to predict her behaviour.
All that being said...


One of Mother Natures basic Tremblant Winter permissions
over the seasons we have observed is represented and
detailed in the following graphic.

10.17.19.Gulf.Of.Alaska.Stationary.Pool.Observations.a.jpg
10.17.19.Gulf.Of.Alaska.Stationary.Pool.Observations.a.jpg
10.17.19.Gulf.Of.Alaska.Stationary.Pool.Observations.a.jpg (321.46 KiB) Viewed 1509 times


The attached graphic below is a commonly held projection
across many forecasting platforms this fall of 2019.
So, it represents the essence of what we expect could
be very similar exceptional snowfall for this winter
that should be near, same, or even more than the
past 3 winters.

10.31.19.Preliminary.Winter.Seasonal.AccuWeather.Forecast.Elements.a.jpg
Screenshots Courtesy of AccuWeather.com
Screenshots Courtesy of AccuWeather.com
10.31.19.Preliminary.Winter.Seasonal.AccuWeather.Forecast.Elements.a.jpg (550.97 KiB) Viewed 1526 times
Below:
NOAA, is arguably one of the 2 most respected Weather Forecasting
entities on the planet and as such, heavy weighted bias should
be given to their Winter Outlook. This overall forecast indicates
a warmer than average seasonal outlook.

10.17.19.NOAA.Fall.2019.Winter.Outlook.a.jpg
10.17.19.NOAA.Fall.2019.Winter.Outlook.a.jpg (484.17 KiB) Viewed 1491 times
Below: A More Detailed Look At The NOAA Chart From Left-side above.

Within the NOAA Precipitation Model there is significant
Tremblant Natural Snowfall Potential.


10.17.19.NOAA.Precip.Model.Annotated.Colorado.Texas.Lows.a.jpg
10.17.19.NOAA.Precip.Model.Annotated.Colorado.Texas.Lows.a.jpg (413.2 KiB) Viewed 1482 times

Not Everyone Agrees Completely On Forecast Detail:

If you review the Canadian sourced “Weather Network” data
in this article, and compare all of that to the “NOAA” based
data in this article, you will see a primary difference of opinion
specifically on forecast temperature ranges.


In another example of different detail opinion, there are the
two credible historic forecasts from the “Farmers Almanac”,
(first below), and the “Old Farmers Almanac”(second below).
(While sharing the same heritage, these two publications are
separate and distinct, individual publications, not to be confused
with one or the other.)

The differences in opinion are primarily in the Temperature ranges
forecast and it seems as though there is an almost universal consensus
on “Above Average” precipitation, i.e., “Snowfall” at Tremblant. We “Like” that!

11.12.19.Farmers.Almanac.Winter.19.20.Outlook.a.jpg
11.12.19.Farmers.Almanac.Winter.19.20.Outlook.a.jpg (626.49 KiB) Viewed 1491 times
Philosophically, speaking, the “Farmers Almanac”, above, still relies
on its centuries old forecasting methodologies, while the “Old Farmers
Almanac”, below, utilizes both historic and some modern science based
forecasting methods, together with it’s own unique regional breakdown
presentation.
11.12.19.Old.Farmers.Almanac.Winter.19.20.Outlook.a.jpg
11.12.19.Old.Farmers.Almanac.Winter.19.20.Outlook.a.jpg (467.36 KiB) Viewed 1491 times

Canada’s own 24Hr. cable weather service “The Weather Network”
favours a cooler, “Below Normal" temp. range.

9.16.19.The.Weather.Network.Winter.Temp.Outlook.a.jpg
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9.16.19.The.Weather.Network.Winter.Precip.Outlook.a.jpg
9.16.19.The.Weather.Network.Winter.Precip.Outlook.a.jpg (492.71 KiB) Viewed 1489 times
If you filter out the Temp. Range differences in forecast opinion,
there is almost universal agreement that the precipitation should
be more than normal. Even if, especially if, Tremblant has a normal
seasonal temp. range with 3 months of daily sub-zero C daily 24hr.
cycles, combine that with “Above Average” precipitation, and you
get...


Big Natural Snowfall At Tremblant!


Despite variable opinions favouring warmer or cooler than
average for the winter as a whole, we think there are similar
overall forces now, that have produced record level natural snowfall
accumulations in the most recent 6 out of 7 seasons, especially
considering Tremblant’s Northerly Latitude within the region.

It should be noted that the last season, 2018/19,
was an all-time record for natural snowfall accumulation, not only
within the recorded stat’s kept on the Official Tremblant Resort
website, but as far as we know, within any existing record of
weather stat’s in the modern period of scientific based records
of the past 100 years or so.

We think that while it may be possible to see another record,
it is unlikely, however we still do feel there is a fair probability
of another “Super Season”, where this seasons natural snow
accumulation is at or over 500cm’s, which is 20% or more,
over the running 20 year snowfall average that is just over 420cm’s.


As an element of positive support for that idea,
consider the following below.
10.20.19.Climatologist.49.Epic.Winter.Snowfall.a.jpg
10.20.19.Climatologist.49.Epic.Winter.Snowfall.a.jpg (626.12 KiB) Viewed 1489 times
The Natural Snowfall Trends Seem To Be Rising At Tremblant.

...and, because we have 3 months of authentic, sub-zero C, winter
temps., we get to keep it all, in excellent condition!

4.23.19.Historic.Snowfall.Seasonal.Totals.Grahpic.a.jpg
4.23.19.Historic.Snowfall.Seasonal.Totals.Grahpic.a.jpg (209.86 KiB) Viewed 1524 times
As an adjunct to all the specifically favourable weather forecast
elements for Tremblant this 2019/20 Winter...


Please take a look at the previous weather/snowfall related articles
in this section as we want to point out that a distinct trend in
snowier winters at Tremblant is something that we have been
documenting here for several years. It seems as though there is
a reoccurring pattern that is facilitating very favourable natural
snowfall production in the atmospheric conditions above the
Tremblant region. It appears to be in place for this November 2019,
through to April 2020 winter Alpine Snow Sport Season as well.

A Trend Continuation, The Case For Advance Booking At Tremblant.

Our “Trend” theory is that as Global Warming may be causing a
slight increase in average temps, this may actually be bringing
Tremblant’s inherently cooler temps. up into Mother Natures own
best natural snow making temps at roughly -7C(+/- 3C), more
frequently(+). Furthermore, at regionally critical tipping points at
or around the freezing mark, Tremblant also seems to remain
favourably on the lower temp sub-zero range more frequently.
We think this may be resulting in a higher consistency of thermal-free
days when compared to it’s regional peers at slightly lower, more
southerly latitudes.(#)

(+) We have written an article theorizing that the statistical increase
of natural snowfall events and accumulations at Tremblant over recent
winters may be due to slight overall seasonal warming. Here is a link
to that article:

https://t.co/jx3f6zNdIT?amp=1

(#) For example, by recorded Meteorological Statistics, Killington Vermont
now only has 1 month per year when the average daily temperature is
below 32 degrees F., Zero degrees C, which is January. Tremblant has
three sub-zero C months, December, January, and February. Our hypothesis is
that generally, there are significant benefits to consistent snow surface quality,
stability, retention, ease of all skill level performance and seasonal durability,
of 3 X more average sub-zero C, genuine winter days. Of course there may
be individual exceptions/variations to any weather rules from season to season,
or within seasons. However, snow does not stay snow without sustained temps
below freezing, so within the 5 months that winter typically spans, sub-zero C
will always remain as the primary permission for thermal-free surface quality.

As an additional acedotal case-in-point reference, an article published in
“SeniorsSkiing.com”, 1.4.19, the author “J.F.” says “Here in New England,
temperatures swing high and low lately with 50(F) degree-plus spikes and
heavy rains interposing snow squalls and blizzards.”

The Laws Of Physics apply, and in a 5 month season when only 1 month has
average daily temperatures below 32(F)/ 0(C), there is little doubt
that there are going to be far more frequent daily thermal thaw intrusions
there, than here at Tremblant where we have 3 months of daily average
temps below the freezing mark.

We respectfully submit that if you are bringing your family of four from
Boca Raton Florida, USA, from Chawton, Hampshire, England, or from
Sao Paulo, Brazil(as only 3 samples of International Guests we meet on
the slopes at Tremblant every day), to the East Coast of North America
for a Ski Holiday, and you have to book months in advance, what you are
really looking for is reliable, consistent, sustained snow conditions that make
for an authentic, genuine, Winter Ski experience.

The bottom line on this concept is that in a contest of “Who Gets More Snow”,
the winning element in-so-far-as Ski Conditions go may actually be “Who Has
Fewer Thermal Burps”. More outright snowfall may not be as important if Ski
conditions are more frequently interrupted by individual above freezing
rainy/wet episodes that reduce day-to-day trail surface consistency.


Tremblant Winter Ski Season 2019/20 Forecast Summary:

Average to cooler temp. ranges combined with
above average/normal precipitation forecasts indicate
both a Tremblant “Super-Season”(*) Natural Snowfall
Potential, as well as consistent, sustained, Winter Snow
Surface trail conditions of superior quality and durability.


Generally...
-Odds are the East Coast is going to have a longer, cooler winter
than average with frequent snow storm tracks generated by
Jet Stream, Colorado Low, and Texas Low system events.
-Greater than average ambient snowfall with individual snow
storms that will be capable of significant “Powder” depths.
-There will be the usual periodic temp. swings that
could include a “January Thaw”, or similar “Mid-Winter Thaw”,
but regional latitude should mean northern exposures are shorter
with less severe temp. jumps.
-Spring has a high probability of being late and cool.


For Ski visit planning purposes that span anywhere
from single days, to Ski Holiday vacations, to those
who are lucky enough to commit to a “Seasons Pass”
level of daily or weekly attendance frequency, we think
there is ample evidence to support a very confident
outlook for exceptionally fine Tremblant 2019/20 conditions
at any stage of seasonal conditions development, especially
considering Tremblant’s trending larger natural snowfall patterns
relative to historical norms.

(*) We define a "Super-Season” as any Winter
that experiences a total snowfall accumulation
of 20% or greater, than the running 21 year
average. The current 21 year average is just over
420cm’s, so a “Super-Season” would be just over
500cm’s.


.
The Tremblant360.com Team