Winter Ski Season 2020/21 Weather Conditions Outlook

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T360
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Winter Ski Season 2020/21 Weather Conditions Outlook

Post by T360 »

Please Note: There is some duplication in Weather Forecasting between this topic
and the topic labeled “2020/21 Startup Chronology” due to the relevance for both.
We have placed those technical graphics into a “Section 2”, posted below
as “Repy”, page 2.



--------------- Original SECTION 1 of this Post ----------------------

As usual, there are a range of complex factors that have
variable degrees of probability for the ultimate mix determining
the quality of the upcoming Tremblant Ski Season.

Fortunately, the consensus that we like to identify across the
spectrum of forecasting entities has the very basic similarity of....


A Season With Tons Of Natural Snowfall!

There are differences of forecast opinion on the temperature
ranges, i.e., overall above or below average, but we’ll get into
that later on in this article.

Lets start with this one because we like the simplicity of
its central feature as depicted in its graphic display,
it represents the essence of any great ski season.


Please note the “Blue” monthly above average snowfall anomalies forecast
in the lower right corner of this graphic below(especially January).

11.11.20.Old.Farmers.Almanac.Quebec.Regional.Winter.Forecast.Projections.a.jpg
11.11.20.Old.Farmers.Almanac.Quebec.Regional.Winter.Forecast.Projections.a.jpg
11.11.20.Old.Farmers.Almanac.Quebec.Regional.Winter.Forecast.Projections.a.jpg (508.12 KiB) Viewed 820 times

While there is scepticism about Almanac-style forecasting,
as you can see within the annotations of the above Old
Farmers Almanac, they have been using professional external
meteorological data sources(*) to blend into their proprietary
formula that originated in 1792. We think that may give
them some advantage, taking into account that no
weather forecasting can ever be taken to be certain.

(*) We did an interview with their publisher several
seasons ago and at that time their external weather
data source was AccuWeather, a very well known and
respected professional weather forecasting firm.

Our format for winter forecasting is simply, consensus,
amongst the very best sources we can find. The fortunate
part of that is that the very best sources are also consensus
driven, typically using combinations of modelling formulas
to end up with composite data assemblies where conclusions
are derived from positioning in the middle of the highs and lows.
The multi-red-line graphic in the top left-hand corner of the file
below represents an exact example of that concept. It shows the
probability computations of over a dozen scientific meteorological
models for this season which has generated the La Nina forecast
for winter 2020/21.


10.14.20.La.Nina.Weather.Factors.a.jpg
10.14.20.La.Nina.Weather.Factors.a.jpg
10.14.20.La.Nina.Weather.Factors.a.jpg (638.67 KiB) Viewed 818 times



Below are August and September 2020 actual La Nina
imagery.



10.14.20.La.Nina.Weather.Factors.b.jpg
10.14.20.La.Nina.Weather.Factors.b.jpg
10.14.20.La.Nina.Weather.Factors.b.jpg (499.64 KiB) Viewed 817 times

Here are additional La Nina references found in current
forecasting models for winter 2020/21.


10.14.20.La.Nina.Weather.Factors.c.jpg
10.14.20.La.Nina.Weather.Factors.c.jpg
10.14.20.La.Nina.Weather.Factors.c.jpg (557.2 KiB) Viewed 815 times

Additional Great Lake Effect Snowfall:

This below is a two part/two graph examination of a Co-Factor
element we feel could play a very large part in this seasons
winter mix at Tremblant, especially when there are very fine
tipping points that can favourably shift the natural snowmaking
potential of west to east passing weather-maker systems.


We think the following detail regarding the warmer than usual
Great Lakes could be a substantial component of enriched
natural snowfall for Tremblant for the 2020/21 winter.


Great Lakes Effect Potential - Graph #1
11.11.20.Winter.Snowfall.Weather.Maker.Cofactors.Great.Lake.Effect.a.jpg
11.11.20.Winter.Snowfall.Weather.Maker.Cofactors.Great.Lake.Effect.a.jpg (437.38 KiB) Viewed 767 times
Great Lakes Effect Potential - Graph #2
11.11.20.Winter.Snowfall.Weather.Maker.Cofactors.Great.Lake.Effect.b.jpg
11.11.20.Winter.Snowfall.Weather.Maker.Cofactors.Great.Lake.Effect.b.jpg (689.37 KiB) Viewed 767 times
This below is an annotated USA snow/precipitation only model
that shows “The Worst Of Winter” in snowfall anomalies, indicating
the most significant extra snow over the whole continent.

We have made a graphic extension over the Great Lakes basin
and eastward over the relevant Canadian portion of the map
where we think the "Great Lakes Effect” enhancement to any
westward sourced “Worst Of Winter" snowfall weather systems
could occur.

Please review the paragraph in the right lower half of this
attachment.


11.12.20.Annotated.Snowfall.Anomaly.Forecast.a.jpg
11.12.20.Annotated.Snowfall.Anomaly.Forecast.a.jpg
11.12.20.Annotated.Snowfall.Anomaly.Forecast.a.jpg (637.76 KiB) Viewed 660 times



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The Tremblant360.com Team
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Posts: 8
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Re: Winter Ski Season 2020/21 Weather Conditions Outlook

Post by admin »

SECTION 2 Of This Topic:

Technically, we need to differentiate between the seasons start
and the overall seasonal forecast trend spanning the 5 months,
including December through April.


So then, what will we have at the start-up?

A Quick Start, Or A Steady Climb?


The ambitious plan of Tremblant Mountain Operations
to open the Ski/Board season for November 20, 2020
has a bit of an uphill climb, in terms of weather factors,
due to what we think is a somewhat unexpected duration
of warm fall weather. For that reason, the total seasonal
quality may be a separate consideration in comparison
to initial phases, and that may indicate the start may be
more gradual in terms of building open terrain.

11.10.20.Tremblant.Near.Term.Weather.Forecast.Data.a.jpg
11.10.20.Tremblant.Near.Term.Weather.Forecast.Data.a.jpg
11.10.20.Tremblant.Near.Term.Weather.Forecast.Data.a.jpg (405.85 KiB) Viewed 660 times
Ultimately, it is “The Laws Of Physics” that determine
the potentials for snow creation and retention to the
point of being able to support skiable open terrain.

We have had previous slow start seasons due to late
fall warm weather that have had spectacular mid-season
snowfalls and there are plenty of co-factors to make that
possible this season. For only one example, the season of 2015/16
had a very slow start with only one run open on the Nord/North,
however the season total was 506 CM’s, which qualified it as a
statistical Super Season at 20% over the 20 year average.

We are ready for any possibility and regardless of fall weather
start factors, we are greatly appreciative for any and all openings,
knowing that Tremblant’s Mountain Op’s are the masters of
optimization and will make the very best of whatever weather
Mother Nature decides to deliver.

------------------ 11.12.20 Insert Update ----------------------

Evolving Weather Forecast Models...

Headed in the right direction!

11.12.20.Tremblant.Near.Term.Weather.Forecast.Data.a.jpg
11.12.20.Tremblant.Near.Term.Weather.Forecast.Data.a.jpg
11.12.20.Tremblant.Near.Term.Weather.Forecast.Data.a.jpg (483.63 KiB) Viewed 660 times

----------------------------------------------------------------------


----- INSERT UPDATE: Effective 11.12.20 ------ Ski Season Opening Postponed X 1 Week.

Please See Official Notice Attached:

11.12.20.Official.Tremblant.Seasons.Opening.Delay.Notice.a.jpg
11.12.20.Official.Tremblant.Seasons.Opening.Delay.Notice.a.jpg
11.12.20.Official.Tremblant.Seasons.Opening.Delay.Notice.a.jpg (320.23 KiB) Viewed 648 times
----------- End Of Insert --------------


------- 11.16.20 INSERT UPDATE: ---------------



11.16.20.Tremblant.Weather.Forecast.Models.a.jpg
11.16.20.Tremblant.Weather.Forecast.Models.a.jpg
11.16.20.Tremblant.Weather.Forecast.Models.a.jpg (525.43 KiB) Viewed 660 times
----------- End Of Insert --------------


Please Note: A) This page is under construction
and we have a lot more to add. We’ll be updating
on a continuous basis, so please refresh or check
back as your time permits. Thanks for your visit!

Please Note: B) You can make your own comparisons
between this seasons factors and previous seasons
by reviewing the range of pre-season topics we’ve
done for other years. Click back out to the “Tremblant
Geographic” index page and scroll down to the similar
topics of seasons past.




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