The latest in our annual series of...
Articles For Weather Nerds And Ski Holiday Planners Who
Enthusiastically Look Forward To Skiing At Tremblant.
Winter 2022/23 Ski Season Weather And Snowfall
Forecast Outlook For Mont Tremblant.
3.8.22.Summit.Sunny.Snowy.Views.At.McCulloch.Ent.Over.Lac.T.d.jpg
- 3.8.22.Summit.Sunny.Snowy.Views.At.McCulloch.Ent.Over.Lac.T.d.jpg (1.41 MiB) Viewed 4130 times
This article is divided into 2 main areas.
The first is the overall Global context, weather
patterns of planetary force applicable to 2022/23,
in this case La Nina. The second is regional forecasting
for the Tremblant area, which is further divided into
anticipated temperature ranges and snowfall projections
for the 2022/23 season.
Lets begin with the Global context, patterns of planetary force.
A La Nina "Three-Peat” Heading Into The Winter
Of 2022/23 Offers Significant Probabilities Of Another(*)
Above Average Snowfall Winter For Tremblant.
(*)Last years La Nina delivered 551 cm’s(18 ft.)
compared to the 25 year average at 430 cm’s(14.1 ft.).
As we have frequently written in the past, there is
no such thing as “Absolute” in weather forecasting
so it needs to be said from the outset that Mother
Nature reserves the right to deliver the unexpected,
However... in the weather forecasting profession
statistical probabilities applied to physical observations
rule. For the winter of 2022/23 those probabilities do
look very favourably on another abundant, above average
natural snowfall for the reasons we try to illustrate with
the content included in this posting.
- 10.9.22.Winter.Ski.Season.Weather.Outlook.Factors.a.jpg (1.07 MiB) Viewed 4186 times
La Nina is a cold band of water, spanning 1000’s of Kilometres
off the Equatorial zone of the Pacific Ocean adjacent to the coast
of South America that effects Global weather systems due to its
influence on atmospheric air temps.
This band of water is not always cool, and when the water here
is warm, it is named El Nino. Variable combinations of Pacific
Ocean currents and trade winds are the primary reasons for
annual differences.
There are portions of the La Nina water band this year that have
not seen the cold temp values shown now, since 2010. That is
a very strong, singular, trending indicator.
Statistically, La Nina delivers the most reliable snowfall patterns
at Tremblant. If for no other reason than the 2 worst snowfall
years in 25 were “El Nino” years, you’d have to be grateful for this
La Nina forecast for no other reason than La Nina has not yet had
a statistically low-end numeric snowfall value in those same past
25 years we have stat’s for.
Please note that because this is the third La Nina in a row, there
may be transferrable elements from the previous 2 seasons weather
forecasts, however as the total seasonal strength for the winter 2022/23
La Nina is not yet known, the final results may vary.
( Please also note that the first La Nina year of this series, 20/21, at
353 Cm’s was indeed a low snowfall season for all of Eastern North
America, however there were 2 distinct events that took away from
that seasons potential, and 1 that added to it up at Tremblant’s
northerly latitude.
The first of the 2 that took away, was weeks of unexpected unseasonably
warm Eastern November weather that caused a 1 week delay on opening.
The second that took away was virtually a month of unexpected Eastern
hot weather in March-to-April that had sequential days up to, and above +15C.
20/21 was a good season, ski-quality-wise anyway because oddly enough the
1 thing that added significantly to the quality up north here was a roughly 70
day unusual stretch of mid-winter, sustained Sub-Zero C winter temps up and
over Mountain elevations that bumped along, sometimes just below and very
close to Zero C, but ultimately stayed consistently Sub-Zero C which meant
that there was very little mid-season thaw.
Even in a normal, colder winter than 20/21, there would/could be periodic
“January Thaws”, or “February Thaws” that typically occur in 20 to 30 day
intervals, but those just did not happen in 20/21 at Tremblant’s northern
latitude. The 2 extended pre-season and end-of-season heat events were
not average and we would not expect them in any future average conditions
even though they are statistically possible. As an extension of that possibility,
one legitimate question for right now could be which of the 2 previous La Nina
winters will this coming one most resemble? )
What we currently see with the bulk of the existing 2022/23 forecasting
data is an approximate repeat of last season, hopefully a bit milder, but
with the same snowfall abundance +/- mid-500’s cm’s.
- 10.9.22.Winter.Ski.Season.Weather.Outlook.Factors.b.jpg (1.27 MiB) Viewed 4186 times
One of the most significant points
in the above graphic needs to be
repeated for the sake of variable
potential outcomes:
“Things begin to get complicated when the
Jet Stream mixes it up with pressure systems
that are active at Earth’s surface levels."
Not all La Nina years are cold, however cold and cool are
relative things that fortunately for Tremblant Fans, are tied
to Latitude where “North” is always a positive winter cofactor.
It could even be argued that “Warmer Than Average” is still
“Cool Enough For A Great Winter” at Tremblant. In fact, warmer
than average can also mean more snow than average because
even a couple of degrees above the daily normal range can put
Tremblant into Mother Natures own, best, natural snowmaking
temperatures at around -7C/20F more often.
Below shows that the strongest La Nina’s are percentage-wise,
the relative warmest in the North-East.
It is the medium and weak La Nina’s that really seam to
deliver the consistent, and very desirable, all-season cool,
with the caveat that there are always exceptions to any
generalization, as you can also see below.
- 10.9.22.Winter.Ski.Season.Weather.Outlook.Factors.c.jpg (899.89 KiB) Viewed 4186 times
Below is a Oceanic Nino Index spanning 1990 to 2022 that shows
the yearly cycles tied to January marks for each year. We have
added Tremblant annual snowfall totals for each year from our
archives and we think that makes an interesting basis for comparison.
What it shows, at least partially, is that we can have good snow years
for either El Nino or La Nina events.
Oddly enough, both the best and worst extreme snowfall years were
El Nino’s, so from that standpoint, anything is possible.
The one thing we really like here is that there has never been a poor
La Nina winter. For sure, there are some with less than average, but
overall, La Nina’s are a great basic indicator for snowfall potential,
particularly in the last 10 years shown here below.
- 10.9.22.Winter.Ski.Season.Weather.Outlook.Factors.d.jpg (794.42 KiB) Viewed 4186 times
Basically, if you look at the last 10 years through to last season,
8 of 10 years have been 500 cm’s or more “Super Seasons”
(i.e. (+/-) 20% above the 25 year average snowfall), in other
words 80% of the last 10 years are at, or over 500 cm’s. Within
that 80%, 62.5% of those are La Nina’s. Another way to factor
it is that within all 10 years, 7 have been La Nina’s and 71%
of those have produced 500cm’s or more, annual snowfalls.
Anyway you cut it, those are all fantastic odds of future
probability when the La Nina forecast profiles are similar.
We want to also reiterate from graphic “Outlook Factors.c”,
that it seems as though the weaker to medium La Nina’s
actually generate the most snow.
This is a multi-element statistical trend that we think means
great chances for this La Nina Three-Peat to be a fantastic
winter snowfall season. It should also be mentioned that a
La Nina Three-Peat only occurs every 21/22 years, although
we do not have enough statistical data to support a predictive
benefit from that alone.
- 10.9.22.Winter.Ski.Season.Weather.Outlook.Factors.e.jpg (727.57 KiB) Viewed 4186 times
Above: Co-relating snowfall stat’s to La Nina events, especially
in the last 10 years definitely shows the upward trend in their
Tremblant snowfalls. Of course there are exceptions, the winter
before last is one of them. As we covered above, the first La Nina
season in this series was at 353 cm’s... however, what we need to
keep in mind is that is all part of the natural process of generating
“averages” and the important thing to remember is that the last
10 years “average” has been at 502 cm’s/16.5 feet. That’s a lot of snow.
Spoiler Alert - The Polar Vortex
What we end up with over Eastern North America is a giant
stack of weather where there are active high/low pressure
systems running right over Earths surface, then at between
8 to 11 kilometres above, there is the push of the Jet Stream,
then above that to a potential height of up to 50 Kilometres,
the cyclonic action of the Polar Vortex to stir up the entire
cocktail, which can periodically produce quite an extreme
temperature mix.
- 10.9.22.Winter.Ski.Season.Weather.Outlook.Factors.f.jpg (1.07 MiB) Viewed 4186 times
We will just have to wait and see what kind of “Wild Card”
the Polar Vortex is for this upcoming season. It’s only been
about a decade that we’ve had so much attention drawn to this
highly variable winter element, but even then, it certainly has
become a widely recognized influence that can be responsible
for some unique winter effects we all need to cope with.
Obviously, last season was a really cool one, but it was not
just Tremblant that was cool, it was the whole of North America,
especially the East, and amazingly, at points the cold reached all
the way south to the Caribbean and Central America! (see upper far-right below)
- 10.9.22.Winter.Ski.Season.Weather.Outlook.Factors.f.2.jpg (1.32 MiB) Viewed 4158 times
It could be argued that the Polar Vortex may be a key component
in maintaining sufficient cold over our region for snowy future winters
if Global Warming continues on at the current pace. Otherwise
and generally, please, please, drive the vehicle with the absolute
smallest carbon emission you can to go skiing and whenever
possible, fill the vehicle up with passengers to reduce the
number of vehicles in use.
Tremblant 2022/2023 Ski Season Specific Outlooks:
Winter's Primary Components:
Temperature And Snowfall Forecasting For 2022/23
If you were to break winter weather down into it’s
primary components, we would do so by examining
“Temperatures” and “Snowfall” because they are
generally considered to be the 2 main ingredients
necessary to facilitate skiing.
After all, “Snow” is a solid, crystalline form of water, so
the very most basic “permission” for Alpine Winter Snow
Sports is a sustained temp below 0C/32F...
First, We Look At 2022/23 Temperature Forecasting...
Below is the first we want to look at because it is
least important from our perspective, in that “Winter”
at Tremblant is very reliable for delivering “cool”
in sufficient quantity to sustain a very solid and
durable time span that will support any amount
of snowfall in any La Nina/El Nino event.
In other words, we’re never worried about cool at
Tremblant and even if it’s warmer than usual up here,
that’s still typically cool enough for loads of snow.
In that regard... Repeat From Above:
"It could even be argued that “Warmer Than Average” is still
“Cool Enough For A Great Winter” at Tremblant."
In this 2022/23 case, we can see from these sample
forecast models below there is no complete consensus on
projected temp values. Some forecasters are predicting
colder than average, some are predicting above seasonal
temps. The lower right corner below shows a NOAA
temp projection for December 2022, January 2023,
and February 2023 with Tremblant just into the “White”,
or average temperature zone and feel that may be the
most realistic idea.
What that means numerically is common daytime highs anywhere
from -3C down to -12C(26F/10F), depending on passing
pressure systems, with the possibility of a couple of either
mild or cool spells in the form of "January Thaw” or “February
Thaw”, or “Polar Vortex” events tossed in for Mother Natures
amusement. Take a look at the January 15th 2022 daily Journal
entry and you’ll find the 30 year daily high temp average is actually
-3C, so while we may speculate it will be colder, the stat’s are
not extreme or harsh by any standards.
- 10.9.22.Winter.Ski.Season.Weather.Outlook.Factors.g.jpg (1.32 MiB) Viewed 4186 times
Also... Just a reminder not to forget, don’t place an unusual
emphasis on the low-range temp values because...
Most of the really cool stuff happens a night when we’re not
skiing, so we tend to get the benefit of cool snow effects on
grooming or Hors Piste, but with far warmer daytimes.
Secondly, and we must say the “Good News” part
of this story... We Look At 2022/23 Snowfall Forecasting...
“Saving The Best For Last” ...
This is the most important forecast element:
Very, very fortunately, above average Snowfall precipitation
does have a complete consensus amongst the forecast models
shown below.
Obviously, at least to us, this is the most desirable of the 2 Winter
basic permissions because with the typical cool of Tremblant’s
northern latitude that is pretty much guaranteed, adding in a ton
of snowfall is usually going to mean more rapid development of the
degree and quality of the new season, as well as the durable scope
of mid-season quality, together with the promise of a really great
Spring Skiing season for both coverage and quality.
Basically, a repeat of last season would be a “Best Case” forecasting
possibility, i.e., 550 cm’s of total snowfall over the 25 year average
of 430 cm’s, and with the spectacular Spring where Tremblant
remained with a fully open trail network well into April. Even if
you took the last 10 seasons average at 502cm’s, that would still
be an excellent amount of natural snowfall, however we think that
considering all the positive forecast elements, there are many reasons
for optimistic expectations that could substantially exceed the recent
10 year averages.
- 10.9.22.Winter.Ski.Season.Weather.Outlook.Factors.h.jpg (1.26 MiB) Viewed 4186 times
Additionally...
The annual latitude advantage of this is that with 3 months
of daily temp ranges below zero C (Dec/Jan/Feb),Tremblant
typically gets to keep all of its snow and there is very little loss
compared to our other regional peers to the South where in
Vermont for example, there is now only one month per season
with daily temp averages below zero C. (Jan). As a consequence
up north here at Tremblant we just don’t get nearly the amount
of mixed, alternating rain and snow events that the warmer
southern East Coast zones experience.
"and the snow just keeps coming all winter”.
- Ski Magazine, December 2019, Tremblant Excerpt,
Resort Guide 2020 East: Top 10 Skier's Mountains.
Bonus Time!
As noted in the graphic below, somewhere between 5 and a dozen
times per season, Tremblant beneficially receives big bunches of
natural snowfall from either Colorado or Texas Low Pressure
systems that flow from the prevailing South-West winter winds.
We certainly expect that to be the case this season, however we
might even expect the odd bonus snowfall amounts due to the
overall U.S. winter stormy outlook shown here.
If the Colorado and Texas lows start out with, or have to traverse
to us across other naturally snowy weather(possibly “Lake Effect”
from crossing the warm Great Lakes Basin that often does not
freeze over until early Feb.), it is possible that there could be
quite a bit of this snowy “pick-up” along the route.
These possibilities are what we might look forward to as “Blizzard”
scenario’s and they do happen frequently enough that we can look
forward confidently to this form of occasional bonus.
- 10.9.22.Winter.Ski.Season.Weather.Outlook.Factors.i.jpg (1.25 MiB) Viewed 4186 times
Please Note:
This article is under construction and additional
text/commentary/forecast data may be added over time.
Please refresh or revisit for ongoing updates.
Thanks for your visit!
Search 14 Years Of Our Daily Ski Conditions Reports
By Date: Index: http://tinyurl.com/yktelmu
.