2024/25 Winter Weather Forecast Outlook.

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T360
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2024/25 Winter Weather Forecast Outlook.

Post by T360 »

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---------------- PLEASE NOTE: ------------------

11.12.24 Official Tremblant.ca Notice Of Seasons
Start Postponement To 11.28.24 Included Below:



The very early/pre-season weather has been above Zero C
for an unexpected duration that has caused delay.
We will attempt to augment the forecast data with
updated current influence factors, so please also
see the companion Seasons Startup article in this
Tremblant Geographic section.





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The Tremblant360 Winter Ski Season 2024/25 Weather Forecast Outlook.



Please Note: Topic Under Construction.
Additional Forecast Data/Text Will Be Added.

Initial posting is primarily annotated graphics
which are self explanatory but we do intend
to add additional editorial content as time
and additional forecasting permit.

Thanks for dropping by!





A Perfect Place To Start!


Canada’s coast-to-coast 24hour broadcast Cable TV Weather
Network has come out with their initial winter weather forecast
and in the face of what has been so far a very warm Fall season
here in the North-Eastern side of the continent, we’re both
happy and reassured to see this cool winter startup forecast
because we’ll need it in order to establish the refrigerated
ground layer to support retained snow over Mountain elevations.



10.15.24.T360.Winter.Weather.Forecast.Data.a.jpg
10.15.24.T360.Winter.Weather.Forecast.Data.a.jpg (1.2 MiB) Viewed 1239 times




The current forecasting insights begin with a huge and
fundamental change from last season to this season in
what could arguably be the largest single influencer of
them all, it’s switching up to be a La Nina pattern in
the equatorial East Pacific Ocean off the coast of South
America, compared to the El Nino of last year.




10.15.24.T360.Winter.Weather.Forecast.Data.b.jpg
10.15.24.T360.Winter.Weather.Forecast.Data.b.jpg (1.3 MiB) Viewed 1239 times





Shifting Water Temp Currents.

One very important aspect of the Pacific water temps off the
South American coast is whether or not they will remain close
to the coast or will they migrate as they sometimes do, towards
the centre or even farther East, in the Pacific ocean’s equatorial
band. “If, if if” there’s any major relocation the effects can be of
profound consequence for Nor-Eastern North America but more
specifically, for Tremblant within that zone.

Of course, what we’d like to see in the 2 alternatives
below is scenario 2, where the cool water stays close
to the South American coast which would substantially
increase the odds of a colder East-side winter.


10.15.24.T360.Winter.Weather.Forecast.Data.c.jpg
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Snowfall seasons of both high and low statistical totals
can occur with any Pacific Ocean water temperature pattern,
but on the whole, we see La Nina as a perhaps the more
desirable form and indeed if you look below at the last
5 La Nina winters here at Tremblant you’ll see they
average out at 531cm’s, well above the 28 year running
average of 439cm’s, and well above the last 5 El Nino
year average at 492cm's.




10.15.24.T360.Winter.Weather.Forecast.Data.d.jpg
10.15.24.T360.Winter.Weather.Forecast.Data.d.jpg (928.66 KiB) Viewed 1239 times


Why is this important?


Tremblant360 Statistical Snowfall Markers:

If you consider that 28 year running average at any given
number, we define any snowfall accumulated seasonal
total of 20% above that as a “Super-Season”.

Specifically, if you put into that equation the current
28 year average at 439cm's and calculate a 20% addition,
that comes out at 87.8cm’s for a total of 526.8cm’s
which makes the La Nina average a “Super-Season”
probability.



Our Prediction:


In light of the past 5 La Nina’s that average out at
531cm’s, that makes the present weather factor
combination particularly significant for us and it
would be a very good reason for us to make our
prediction for the upcoming season to have(plus
or minus a wee bit), “Super-Season” status at 530cm's.




There are things that could make us wrong...

For example... if the NOAA Official forecast became
the predominant reality and the temp anomaly was
really warm and/or wet, that could obvious affect
things in multiple ways, however as shown in the
graphic second below, there are maybe more things
that could make us right.



10.15.24.T360.Winter.Weather.Forecast.Data.e.jpg
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3 Actual Things That Could make Us Right:



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Literally Centuries Of Weather Forecasting,
How Do They Stack Up This Year?




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10.15.24.T360.Winter.Weather.Forecast.Data.g.jpg (1.25 MiB) Viewed 1239 times




“OnTheSnow” is an online Skiing/Ski Resort resource
that publishes extensively for traveling Ski Holiday
planners and a review of their current 24/25 seasonal
forecast is one that we really like for the reasons
annotated in the graphic below.



10.15.24.T360.Winter.Weather.Forecast.Data.h.jpg
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Additional Forecast Data Sources:




11.14.24.T360.Winter.Weather.Forecast.Data.a.jpg
11.14.24.T360.Winter.Weather.Forecast.Data.a.jpg (1.26 MiB) Viewed 1141 times





Topic Under Construction...

But the bottom line is that with a La Nina profile,
combined with Tremblant’s Northerly latitude
(that typically trends towards cooler temps),
there’s excellent potential for a really long,
very snowy winter at Tremblant!







---------------- PLEASE NOTE: ------------------

11.12.24 Official Tremblant.ca Notice Of Seasons
Start Postponement To 11.28.24 Included Below:




11.12.24.Tremblant.Official.Season.Start.Postponement.To.11.28.24.a.jpg
11.12.24.Tremblant.Official.Season.Start.Postponement.To.11.28.24.a.jpg (1.21 MiB) Viewed 1147 times



The very early/pre-season weather has been above Zero C
for an unexpected duration that has caused delay.
We will attempt to augment the forecast data with
updated current influence factors.

---------------------------------------------------






11.18.24 Additional Forecast Updates.





Please note: Due to the delay in the seasons opening because
of weather to warm to facilitate early snow accumulations,
we are also including this NOAA data in our pre-season
conditions observations as an explanatory component.


11.18.24.T360.Winter.Weather.Forecast.Data.b.jpg
11.18.24.T360.Winter.Weather.Forecast.Data.b.jpg (1.25 MiB) Viewed 1119 times






Just because the Fall season has been unusually warm
up to mid-November, there is no reason yet to think that
winter itself is going to be any less intense. As any experienced
Tremblant fan can tell you, things can and do become very,
very cool and wintery around here in a heartbeat. So, despite
the distraction of a bit of a slow start, the overwhelming
likelihood is that it will kick in with a quick transition and
the normal winter weather period will rapidly put Fall in
the rear-view mirror.

For that reason we need to keep our eye on the ball and
follow the climactic seasonal science as it continues to
present across the array of forecasting sources.

In that regard we’d like to tie into a correlation between
science and history with the connection of the Old Farmer's
Almanac and AccuWeather.

As a credited component of the Old Farmer’s Almanac,
AccuWeather’s own Ski Season forecast is a meaningful
element within the blended consensus approach.


11.18.24.T360.Winter.Weather.Forecast.Data.a.jpg
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Important Repeat...



"Just because the Fall season has been unusually warm
up to mid-November, there is no reason yet to think that
winter itself is going to be any less intense. As any experienced
Tremblant fan can tell you, things can and do become very,
very cool and wintery around here in a heartbeat."






.
The Tremblant360.com Team
User avatar
T360
Posts: 3241
Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2008 2:53 pm
Location: Canada
Contact:

Re: 2024/25 Winter Weather Forecast Outlook.

Post by T360 »

.



11.17.24.T360.Winter.Weather.Forecast.Data.i.jpg
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---------- 12.13.24 - Supplementary Weather Data - La Nina Update: --------------



12.13.24.Supplemental.Weather.Data.La.Nina.Stats.a.jpg
12.13.24.Supplemental.Weather.Data.La.Nina.Stats.a.jpg (1.01 MiB) Viewed 1059 times


Please Note: This update is also included in our 12.13.24 Daily Ski Conditions Journal entry.



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.
The Tremblant360.com Team
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