Last Seasons Reality Could Easily Be This Seasons Forecast!
2024/25 La Nina Makes A 604cm Winter Over 30 Year 445cm Average.
Could We See That Again? ... YES!!!
2025/26 La Nina, Repeat Potential!
Topic Under Construction, however...
The summary is that with a relatively strong October 2025
La Nina Global weather signal, we are forecasting a significantly
above the 30 year average natural snowfall(currently at 445cm’s).
Subject to ongoing computations, we so-far think this winters natural
snowfall is going to be 535 cm’s, or more, maybe even way more!
Readers here can absolutely look to the forecast of
last year as an analogue comparison to this season
as the entry point/predictive profile due to the
similarities.
If you add in last years 604cm’s actual natural snowfall
total to the stats below to generate an updated 6 year
La Nina average, you come up with an amazing 543cm’s!
Winter 2024/25 La Nina Preview of 2025/26?
This document is from last fall, however because of the similarities
to the forecast profile for this 25/26 season upcoming, it has direct
and very important relevance.
- 10.15.24.T360.Winter.Weather.Forecast.Data.d.jpg (928.66 KiB) Viewed 466 times
Re: Above.
Adding in last winters La Nina 604cm’s to generate
a new 6 La Nina winter average over the above 5 year
data rises that average to 543cm’s. Additionally, it shows
the exceptional trend of abundant natural snowfall that
recent La Nina winters here at Tremblant have been
responsible for.
These are very solidly statistical reasons why ski holiday
planners should be looking forward to a forecast of
exceptional skiing/boarding quality over this winter
of 2025/2026.
La Nina Winter Weather, Proven Snowmaking Favour!
“ENSO” is short for “El Nino Southern Oscillation” and it
is the study of the Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature
band off the East coast of South America at the equator.
El Nino is warmer, La Nina is colder.
It is this either warmer or colder than average immense
and very dynamically changing/flowing body of water that
is/may be the largest single influence on North American
winter weather patterns.
- 10.29.25.NOAA.ENSO.La.Nina.Data.a.jpg (1.07 MiB) Viewed 478 times
- 10.29.25.NOAA.ENSO.La.Nina.Data.b.jpg (1.02 MiB) Viewed 478 times
Please note: In the above graphic on the lower left corner
of the document, the base axis shows advancing 3 month
overlaps. For example “DJF” is December/January/February
and in this case there is a very strong La Nina indicator.
Fall 2025, Winter Weather Forecasting Co-Factors(a):
The “PDO” Defined:
- 11.13.25.Winter.Weather.Cofactors.PDO.a.jpg (894.77 KiB) Viewed 245 times
The “PDO” Explained:
With a strong negative PDO, the La Nina effects are
typically amplified with favourable snowfall odd’s
that directly benefit Tremblant.
- 11.13.25.Winter.Weather.Cofactors.PDO.b.jpg (1.16 MiB) Viewed 245 times
A historic review of prior T360 winter weather forecasts
will show that we have previously referred to a stable
temperature pool of water(either warm or cold) within
the Gulf Of Alaska is a very favourable factor for abundant
Tremblant natural snowfall, and this current combination
might be the most stabilized pattern we've ever seen, which
may likely be due in major part, to the greatest negative PDO
in recorded weather stat’s history from 1854.
“Polar” Reference Differences:
It should be noted in the references of this topic that the
“Polar Jet Stream” and the “Polar Vortex” are 2 distinct
and separate things where the Polar Jet Stream flows
at lower atmospheric levels and the Polar Vortex
exists at much higher strata above the ground levels.
These 2 atmospheric patterns have variable rates of
dominance over Earth’s surface weather depending
on the balance of energy force that either may have
from time to time that gives one or the other more
strength to exert effects at ground levels. A strong
Polar Jet Stream can overcome a weak wave of Polar
Vortex, conversely, a strong Polar Vortex can dominate
a weak Polar Jet Stream.
The probabilities can be estimated, but there are
innumerable variabilities that make forecasting
not completely predictable in the degrees of the
balance between these 2 forces.
In the case of Tremblant winter ski conditions the
very fortunate consequence is the extremely high
probability of big, even potentially record setting,
huge amounts of way above average natural snowfall
generated by this current combination.
Fall 2025, Winter Weather Forecasting Co-Factors(b):
- 10.12.25.Great.Lakes.NOAA.Temp.Anomaly.Data.a.jpg (1.23 MiB) Viewed 234 times
Winter Forecasting Consensus, Above Average East Coast Snow!
Examples(a):
- 10.29.25.Sample.Winter.Ski.Season.Weather.Projections.a.jpg (1.18 MiB) Viewed 466 times
Example(b):
- 11.13.25.Supplementary.Winter.Weather.Forecast.Data.a.jpg (1.05 MiB) Viewed 217 times
In the above document, Ryan Hall specifically notes
“Alberta Clipper” as an influence for this winter.
Generally, we consider Alberta Clippers as relatively
minor elements at Tremblant. As far as we understand,
they may be responsible for pushing active weather
in from the Nor-West as it blends into the strength
of Sou-West dominant, prevailing weather force.
Regardless, every snowflake counts so if Alberta Clippers,
or any other weather subset contributes to either sustained
sub-zero C’s or natural snowfall, we are grateful for all
identifiable ski conditions benefits.
- 11.13.25.Weather.Subset.Concepts.Alberta.Clipper.Example.a.jpg (1.23 MiB) Viewed 188 times
------------- 11.18.25.NOAA.Update.Forecast.Data.a.jpg ----------------
- 11.18.25.NOAA.Update.Forecast.Data.a.jpg (1.14 MiB) Viewed 112 times
------------- 11.25.25.NOAA.Update.Forecast.Data.a.jpg ----------------
- 11.25.25.Winter.Weather.Forecast.Update.Detail.a.jpg (1.19 MiB) Viewed 28 times
More to follow as time permits, but the continued
essence of this forecast report is that there is a high
degree of statistical support(*) for an abundance of above
average snowfall and the consequent excellence and
durability of alpine conditions at Tremblant this winter.
That should be your confidence for booking your ski
holiday early or, if you are regional Tremblant fans,
getting a seasons pass to maximize opportunity for
the full season.
(*) In the past Tremblant decade, 6 ski seasons have been
La Nina winters with an average natural snowfall of 543cm’s.
The running 30 year average is 445cm’s. This will be the 7th
La Nina winter and we’re conservatively forecasting +/- @ 535cm’s,
however there are significant odd’s that it could even reach up
to the 600cm’s or above range that could maybe even make
a new record?
.