Mother Nature Switches Gears...
After 3 Years Of La Nina, Enter :
El Nino !
To begin with, we start with a bit of “reverse engineering”
where we feature some summary data which is just as
much the essence of an overview for the next 6 months
of weather influence over the North American winter.
10.31.23.T360.Winter.Weather.Forecast.Data.a.jpg
- 10.31.23.T360.Winter.Weather.Forecast.Data.a.jpg (1.13 MiB) Viewed 1014 times
10.31.23.T360.Winter.Weather.Forecast.Data.b.jpg
- 10.31.23.T360.Winter.Weather.Forecast.Data.b.jpg (1.08 MiB) Viewed 982 times
Now, For The “Wildcards” !
10.31.23.T360.Winter.Weather.Forecast.Data.c.jpg
- 10.31.23.T360.Winter.Weather.Forecast.Data.c.jpg (1.13 MiB) Viewed 982 times
There are at least 3 other things that could cause
anomalies in either timing or accumulation totals.
“PNA”,
“NAO”,
“AO”
All of which are explained in the following
2 graphics below:
10.31.23.T360.Winter.Weather.Forecast.Data.d.jpg
- 10.31.23.T360.Winter.Weather.Forecast.Data.d.jpg (1.38 MiB) Viewed 982 times
10.31.23.T360.Winter.Weather.Forecast.Data.e.jpg
- 10.31.23.T360.Winter.Weather.Forecast.Data.e.jpg (1.29 MiB) Viewed 982 times
But Wait... There’s More!
Spoiler Alert:
- Winter.Ski.Season.Polar.Vortex.Influence.Factor.a.jpg (1.16 MiB) Viewed 946 times
Below:
To help put these current or potential trends into
historic perspective we are adding this document
from last fall seasons data because of its relevance
to differentiated snowfall totals for both El Nino and
La Nina from 1990 through to 21/22
It should be noted that the third La Nina in a row
last 22/23 winter(not shown below), produced the
absolute record most accumulated snowfall in the
modern statistical era with a remarkable 657 cm’s.
As we pointed out in the past, El Nino can result
in both high and low historic extremes, however...
- 10.9.22.Winter.Ski.Season.Weather.Outlook.Factors.d.jpg (794.42 KiB) Viewed 1008 times
Despite, or because of, all the potential variables
listed out in this article, we have to go with “averages”
in order to make a Tremblant seasonal snowfall
forecast total.
The most recent El Nino’s within the past 10 years
have averaged out at exactly 500 cm’s annual
snowfall totals, so 500 cm’s is what we’re forecasting
on a “+/-“ basis for the Tremblant Winter Ski Season of 2023/24.
500 cm's is well above the total historic 25 year average
currently at roughly 435 cm’s, so basically, we feel there
is every good reason to expect a continuation of the recent
trending seasonal above averages.
--------------- November 12, 2023 Update: ------------------
11.12.23.Early.Ski.Season.Weather.Outlook.Temp.Data.a.jpg
- 11.12.23.Early.Ski.Season.Weather.Outlook.Temp.Data.a.jpg (1.36 MiB) Viewed 965 times
Another Historic Consideration...
An additional factor that has and will be a component
in the way we experience seasons is the human activity
effect. There are quite nearly endless discussions,
supported by the science as we understand it, and
summarized by the current consensus we call “Global
Warming”. The effects and the solutions have, are,
and will continue to be widely debated. As a matter of
fact, we’ve been debating this as a global society
for over 100 years. Evidently, we should maybe talk
less and do more.
8.14.1912.Global.Warming.Warning.a.jpg
- 8.14.1912.Global.Warming.Warning.a.jpg (283.11 KiB) Viewed 366 times
Please Note: You can also refer to previous years of T360
Winter Weather forecasts contained in this “Tremblant
Geographic” section for typical El Nino characteristics.
.