When it comes to predicting ski conditions for the 2026/2027 winter...
This could get complicated, however, we still have...
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Just for the sake of a “let’s start with this...”
As an attention grabbing lead, here at Tremblant360
(and compared to a 30 year running average at 447cm’s),
we think the snowfall this winter is going to end up at
500 cm’s, plus/minus roughly 35 cm’s.
However...
The complexity of the predictive challenge starts and stops
with this simple introductory overview concept:
“OFF THE CHARTS EL NINO POTENTIAL"
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Furthermore, and for completely transparent “Just In Case” context...
We have to put this in because without any historic analogue
cases to make comparisons to, it is vitally important to recognize
the extraordinary influence that “No One Knows Exactly How It Will Go”
consequences of the upcoming climate scenario.
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As a result of all above, another way to necessarily frame or title
this report could be...
“Subject To Revisions"
Mother Nature holds cards we don’t even know exist,
she may hold back, she may double-down.
But We’re Still Sticking With Our 500 Cm's +/- Seasonal Snowfall Forecast.
This topic is going to take a long time to write, and there are
going to be a lot of updates because unless you’ve been living
under a rock, by now, especially if you’re a future winter ski
holiday trip planner, you’ll know by all the early winter forecasts,
this winter has the hugest single wild card in recorded human
weather history... The Super El Nino, as introduced above.
What it actually means is highly debated in terms of what we’ll
experience in the northerly sectors of Eastern North America
between November and April and that’s why we’ll have to update
as theory becomes experience and more precise close-range
forecasting has higher degrees of either confirmation or the
revision towards more accurate probabilities.
There are reasons our 500 cm’s +/- forecast could be
wrong either up or down, but we will elaborate on those as
part of the evolutionary updating process.
A very important excerpt from the “Off The Charts” graphic
above is the fact that when you look at all the Tremblant
El Nino winters since 1997, the average is 427 cm’s but if
look at only the El Nino winters of the last decade, that
average is considerably higher at 519 cm’s.
That is consistent with the overall algorithmic trend line
increase for ALL winters, both Nina/Nino, that have shown
a historically steady increase in natural snowfall at Tremblant
over the past 3 decades. For examples, looking at the years
1997 to 2007, the average snowfall is 372cm’s, while looking
at the years 2016 to 2026, the average snowfall is 532 cm’s.
(See our other articles on historically rising snowfall totals at
Tremblant in this forum section.) (You will also note the blue
horizontal dash line below indicating the 30 year running
average of 447 cm’s, from which we calculate our “Super
Season” designation at +20% = 536cm’s, which next
season would need to achieve to earn that recorded label.
Interesting to note that we’ve had, figuratively speaking,
virtually/nearly a decade of “Super Seasons”, 2016 - 2026.)
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The obvious “Super El Nino” threat to the Planet is heat, however
on a localized basis that is not to say that there will not be cool,
even very cold zones over Earth’s surface and fortunately, Tremblant
just happens to be almost right in the middle of a projected cold
zone for this winter according to many climate analysts.
Below is one of many forecasts that are Tremblant-Friendly due to
extendable proximity that can be found but we’re starting off with
this specific “Direct Weather” one because of it’s simple and
effective presentation.
Please Note: As this is a U.S. based source, there are T360 annotated
sector extensions indicated by white dotted lines where appropriate
to show influence over Tremblant which from a continental perspective,
is close enough to the border to be shown as geographically inclusive.
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A Major Driver Of El Nino Generated Weather Over Tremblant:
The “PNA”.
This is a two-stage reference, starting with a definition
and then the potential effects, specifically at Tremblant.
First the definition:
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This is one of the complicated bits, but weather-nerd or not,
if you want to understand why we support our 500cm’s (+/-)
snowfall forecast, this is essential for the huge potentials on
the positive side.
(Here is the question we posed to Google AI mode(#.1)
as it appears in the upper left corner of this
doc./attachment below:
“Does the predictive weather forecasting for the North American
Winter of 2026, 2027, include any possibility of a positive “PNA”,
and if so, how could that effect the temperatures and precipitation
modelling over upper, eastern sectors of the North American
Continent along the St. Lawrence River Valley and how secondary
drivers, such as the early warning signs of a disrupted Polar Vortex
or historically similar El Nino analog years, might alter this baseline
St. Lawrence Valley forecast, but with particular focus on the latitudes
North at Mont Tremblant, Quebec?”)
(Please note that within the document, we have T360 annotated
some key response highlights to what we think are major points
of concern and/or favour.)
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What we particularly like about this Ai information compilation
is that it acknowledges variable influences based on elements
that could produce very different outcomes, as integrated
responses to the very specific parameters of the search request.
As a fundamental takeaway, it could be logically concluded that
“Volatility” is a key concept in forecasting potential for this season,
however with the early signs of a disrupted Polar Vortex, there is
a substantial indication that the most basic Mother Nature permission
for an authentic winter, i.e., sustained, sub-Zero C/below 32F, “Cold”,
to keep on-the-ground snowfall as retained trail base snow, should be
no problem.
(#.1) This is the very first year we are using Ai forecasting
elements in our annual Tremblant Ski Conditions projections.
As we have written many times before in previous years of
our projections, what we look for are the highest degrees of
consensus across the range of available forecasting and we
think that considering the way Ai has the capability to assimilate
information from potentially unlimited sources, all those combined
collective sources leading or leaning towards specific outcomes is,
at the very least, a HUGE data consensus, and therefore can be
considered a legitimately worthy component of any predictive
weather scenario. In our opinion after seeing what Ai has and can
produce across many ranges of human informational endeavours,
one of the secrets to having a useful output is the focus of the
search question parameters, and, because Ai does not care about
“run on sentences/questions”, but seems to respond very well to
specific/individual/complex search factors, our search question is
highly specific as befitting the exact needs of our forecast insights
and objectives.
Let’s Look At Some Basic, Typical, El Nino Background...
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"Consider The Source”
While there are literally thousands of weather forecasters,
there are far fewer sources of the actual baseline data that
all those forecast interpreters use to generate their own
projections, so when one of the main global sources issues
its own projections, we have to take them very seriously
because of their scientific and historically established credibility.
NOAA is one such source, and here below are the NOAA
temperature and precipitation models for the winter of
2026/2027.
Please Note: While these models specifically cover only
the U.S.A., on a North American Continental basis, Tremblant,
plus roughly 95% of the entire population of Canada, live
within a very narrow linear band along the North edge of
these graphics and the extensions of forecast zones can be
consequently very easily made into all adjacent Canadian spaces.
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What we see above in the NOAA projections are basically
a warm winter with average precipitation.
As a one-line summary, that might be considered at least
easy, at best ideal for a Tremblant Ski Conditions outlook
as “warmer than average” at Tremblant will be very favourably
anticipated by many, and “average precipitation”, especially if
you consider the last decade of snowfall averages at roughly
530cm’s, would altogether, be a fantastic combination.
However... and with distinct potential favour...
If there could be reasons to challenge NOAA projections
in-so-far-as a direct application that would favour in
particular, a better precipitation/snowfall model for
Tremblant, one such reason could be that NOAA uses
a 30 year analogue/historic period, currently 1991 to 2020,
that does not include or reflect the actual annual increase
in average snowfalls that Tremblant has been receiving as
a matter of recorded fact, across the last decade up to the
spring of 2026.
In our case, we think the combinations of “warmer” apllied
to temps., and “average” applied to precipitation, could actually
yield far greater natural snowfalls just because even a couple
or three degrees of “warmer” might, could, maybe put Tremblant
into Mother Natures own -3 C/ -7 C best natural snowmaking
temps more frequently than we might see during the depths of
what are usually the coldest parts of winter that aren't necessarily
or always really snowy. Remember... there is typically less snowfall
in very deep cold, than when the temps are between -3C and -7C,
so anything that gets us across that “warmer”, but still sub-Zero C
range more often, has the statistical probability of more natural snowfall.
However... and with distinct potential risk, but a counter-point favour...
How “warm” is “warmer”? The wild card Super El Nino
heat influence has no historic precedence. Tremblant
enjoys the insurance of actual 3 month, sustained,
fairly deep sub-Zero C’s that can easily withstand a
slight above average heat range and still be sub-Zero C,
but if, if, if... the heat got really crazy flowing from West
to East, we could see some thaw influences that are not
predictable,
BUT... Go Back Up To The “PNA” Graphic Reference And Re-Read Carefully...
If it trends warmer in the West, that could be the main driver
for fractures in the Polar Vortex moving southward in the East,
hence, a mechanical offset for Tremblant that could save the day.
Canadian Weather Model Projections,
Precipitation Anomalies For December 2026, to March, 2027.
These two documents below are self-explanatory when taken
together, but additionally fit into other potentials discussed
in this topic.
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(Please Note: The Tremblant references below include both
“Lac Tremblant” and “Mont Tremblant” which we take as a
positive sign for potentially favourable weather over the
entire elevation of the Alpine Terrain, from base to summit,
notwithstanding the typical -4C cooler elevation/summit temps.)
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It does not take long to see that there could be a virtually
endless numbers and combinations of cause/effect tipping
points across the span of the Ski season from late November
to mid April. But... once again, the seasonal snowfall trend
at Tremblant over the past 20 years has been categorically
upward and... despite the Super El Nino, maybe even because
of the Super El Nino, there continues to definitive forecast
support for it to be excellent big and above average snowfall
winter here at Tremblant.
Topic Under Highly Evolutionary Weather Model
“As It Becomes Clearer”, “Super El Nino” Influenced
Construction, but so far, we’re still going with a
+/- 500 Cm’s Tremblant winter snowfall forecast.
Thanks for your visit!
.