Winter Surface Condition Factors When Temps Near Freezing.

[T360]

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From a February 19th Daily Conditions Report where we
talk about some of the variables when temps are near or
a touch above freezing, but Tremblant's surface conditions
do not show any effects.

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"The dip's 'n dives of the 5 day weather models suggest
a more stable pattern this morning than they have for the past 2 days.
Earlier, they suggested that we'd see a 2 or 3 day exposure to either
zero or 2 degrees plus, but as of this morning, they're now saying
that may only be one day near zero and the rest at just below.

We like that. Any extension of consistent sub-zero is an extension of
undisturbed Snow Surfaces and a reduction of the possibility of surface
thaw and freeze. It's not that we'd loose any terrain at all, there's still
way too much snow for that to happen, but what we like to see is
the preservation of as high a surface "Snow" content as possible before
all those thermal "transition" factors begin to cycle.

This the time when we're thankful for all those -20, -30 C overnight lows
we've had up 'til the last 10 nights or so ago...

Those very cold, crisp nights over a period of 2 or more months on/off
have put the frost very deep into the Mountain, so the ambient cold
storage within the bedrock that results, is now going to become our best
friend for surface durability.

At this stage, the Mountain can even take a few days of slightly "plus"
temps with little or no deterioration of "Snow" surfaces due to Convection.

The principles of physic's involved with convection that most are familiar
with, are basically "hot air rises", but in our case, what we're interested in
is the opposite... "cold air sinks". We have this huge mass of conically shaped
Pre-Cambrian Bedrock we call Mont Tremblant, chilled and well frozen by
months of very cold, and even when the daytime highs get near or into the
plus range, Mont Tremblant's ambiant cold storage radiates the cold back out
and a boundary layer of "cold air sinks" convection washes down over all it's
surfaces.

This works as long as any "warm" from either wind or solar, is less dominant,
but... the shift in balance can be very subtle and there may be a lot of "tipping
points" along the way.

As you can imagine, there will be differences created by "South" exposures,
or "North" protections that occur naturally with the "lay of the land" and the
shade/shelter from either Solar or Wind that are created.

All these factors combine in endlessly variable daily patterns of surface
conditions and what we call "Sweet Spots" around Tremblant, and they are the
main reason we encourage "Exploration", with proviso's of care, control
and safety, each and every day."

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February 23rd. Near 0C/32F Weather Comments:

Back to the Weather....

Humans have amused themselves talking about the weather
since we could stand up straight enough to look at the sky,
or before we found shelter in caves...

However... despite the fact that modern science theoretically gives
us a better shot at predicting, it seems remarkable that the accuracy
hasn’t been a wee bit closer over this past run of 3 or 4 days.

Mother Nature has consistently done just about the opposite
of the predictions, but we think we know why...

We think the answer lies in "Tipping Points" i.e. when things
could go either way. Being this close to the freezing mark,
combined with the naturally variable range that can occur
on a daily basis goes right back to the weather theme we've
been interested in for the past week or so... "Transitions".

"Transitions" by their very nature, and even definition, suggest
the possibility of a back and forth, up or down variability.

If it was as simple as one way up, down, back, forth then it
would be "Transition" i.e. singular, as opposed to "Transitions"
plural.

Too fine a point you say? Not really if you think about "How many
ways does the wind blow" a saying we use to describe any number
of potential outcomes for life, but particularly applicable to weather
at a Ski Resort.

We can expect the unexpected from now until the end of the season
and the value in recognizing that is the knowledge that we need to
be not only ready for any kind of weather, but to have the most fun
Skiing or Boarding in any weather with adaptive gear, techniques
and perhaps most importantly, positive attitude.

At this early point in the morning with both Overcast and Sunny in
the day's mix, it could maybe go either way, but no matter what
Mother Nature does, it's going to be an excellent day at Tremblant.

There's just way too much snow around here to be anything else.

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