1) Be sure to check out Freeskier's Link in reply below...
2) Had to do a bit of Mid-Night shoveling and can tell you the snow is falling
thick and fast on the South Side, so our current prediction is that the South
should make a speedy recovery because the heavy sort of damp falling snow is
going to bond with the wet surface to create an adhesive meld with the new layer.
An additional factor here in St.Jovite is that there is virtually no wind. The snow
is falling straight down and that's a huge bonus because if it's the same on the
Mountain, it's not going to get blown off the wide open runs.
There is now a winter storm warning for the Tremblant area, once again,
our kind of "Bad" weather!
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Apres Ski Update.
The good, the bad, and the wet.
No, it's not the name of a new Clint Eastwood movie...
It snowed on the North, It's raining on the South, and Last Run
on Flying Mile was a soaker, but then standing trail-side at 4:45 P.M.
it was very still, damp feeling, but not actually raining.
The Skiing was "Spring For A Day", so great edging, but beginners may find
it thick.
You needed a Descente Poncho, for sure, but that would have made things
quite comfortable, keeping you dry.
It is raining here at the Resort Base now, if you can call it that. It's
like a strong drizzle to a light rain. That may go up and down until it turns
to snow later on.
Looks like the North will maybe make it O.K., can't tell ya exactly what it's
doing there right this second, but it seems likely it will have less water effect.
Tomorrow is definitely going to have some wild-card elements.
There will be good skiing somewhere, but that's going to depend on a lot of
variables which are very risky to try predicting at this stage.
We do not want to discourage anyone from coming out tomorrow because it is
forecasted to drop temps and drop a ton of new snow overnight, so there's
still great potential for tomorrow. There's a high probability that it will be a
day of good solid technical skills application though, so be ready to focus on
fundamentals.
Have some pic's to process, but not a many as hoped due to technical problems
with too wet camera.
We'll try to do more Apres Ski later. Time of this edit is 6:30 P.M.
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95(*) Open Trails on hopefully, the snowiest
Tremblant we've seen in a long time...
The potential for up to 40 CM +/- of snow in the next 48 Hours
still exists.
We also say "hopefully" because there is the possibility that the active
weather that we will see today could include a larger rain component
than we expect.
Part of the challenge in creating a "Forecast" is the balance between
the desire to see the best possible interpretation of multiple data sources
and the likelihood of any given reality that could also be the outcome
generated by the same multiple data sources.
If you're too optimistic, in hindsight people will accuse you of being unrealistic,
but if you underestimate the possibilities, other will accuse you of being
pessimistic, so we think it's fair to point out that this report will always err
on the side of optimism and what we feel the best possible case could be.
To summarize on this point it might be fair to say...
"Hope for the Best, prepare for everything else."
Therefore, we hope for between 40 to 50 CM of fresh powder snow,
(we'll take some "Blowing and Drifting" accumulations too),
but we need to be ready for a bunch of rain if that does not happen.
Either way, there's a TON of some sort of precipitation on the way!
"Tipping Points"
"Wild-Card"
Tippng points, ie: things that could make the outcome tip in one way
or another are going to be the important factors today.
Wild-Card, ie: a single card in a card game that can change to
produce a different, beneficial outcome.(with all due respect to our friends
at the Casino, we'd like a "Full Snow House" on this one.)
Base Temperature, Wind Speed, Wind Direction, Temperature Aloft, as in
higher up in altitude, will be some primary elements in how this weather
plays out.
Tipping Points and Wild-Cards all at once.
For that reason, and the fact that we're not psychic mind readers of Mother
Nature, the most significant part of todays reporting will be Apres Ski.
Rephrasing the above to convey a similar meaning....
Nothing we can do but hope for the best, and cope with the rest.
So Far... So Good...
At the time of this writing, it's still all snow...
"Proof of Weather:" Please note time stamps on the
Web Cam Snap Shots below...
Not as much as we'd like to see, but still a bit of snow in the trees
and on the chairs of Lowell Thomas.
- Web Cam Snap Shot Courtesy of www.tremblant.ca
- 3.5.11.Summit.Snow.jpg (11.61 KiB) Viewed 3807 times
- Web Cam Snap Shot Courtesy of www.tremblant.ca
- 3.5.11.South.Base.jpg (17.5 KiB) Viewed 3807 times
- Web Cam Snap Shot Courtesy of www.tremblant.ca
- 3.5.11.North.Base.jpg (23.89 KiB) Viewed 3807 times
There is quite a big(although it may not seem big to some, but
when it's this close to freezing, it is HUGE.) difference of opinion
about the possible high temp today.
The Weather network says only up to +1C and http://www.tremblant.ca
says up to +5C. In this one particular case we hope Tremblant is off on this
because if it only goes to +1C, on the South Side base, then due to the
typical 4 to 5 C LOWER temp of the Summit at it's 2116 Ft. higher
elevation, this could have enormous effects on the rain/snow balance
particularly in the mid-mountain sectors.
We are happy to see that Tremblant does call for a Summit temp of -4C,
that is very favourable towards a snowy summit out of all of this at least.
Further to this point, because of the Southerly wind direction, the
potential for orographic precipitation also highly favours the North Side
for massive snow accumulations so we might hope for a little more of this
type of scenery today...
"Great Expectations"
File Shot from our second last Blizzard this season.
Looking for a repeat Mother Nature!
- www.tremblant360.com photo. all rights reserved.
- 3.5.11.PB.Great.Expectations.jpg (186.86 KiB) Viewed 3779 times
95 (*) Open Trails on the Official, Downloadable pdf
Trail and Grooming status, courtesy of
http://www.tremblant.ca
- Screenshot Courtesy of www.tremblant.ca
- Picture 21.png (169.67 KiB) Viewed 3809 times
Fans gathered together to encourage Mother Nature to give us snow!
- Screenshot Courtesy of www.tremblant.ca
- Picture 39.png (382.09 KiB) Viewed 3790 times
that this "Thermal" event, such as it may or may not be,
is going to be fairly short 12 or 13 hours and after that,
it's all snow and sub-zero, just what we like to see.
We'll fill you in later... but the best thing to do is come to
Tremblant, Ski, Board and help us with the coverage!
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P.S. From our last Blizzard... another little hint
for Mother Nature...
Could we please do this again?
- www.tremblant360.com photo. all rights reserved.
- Picture 10.jpg (184.88 KiB) Viewed 3779 times
Links:
http://www.tremblant.ca
http://www.tremblant.ca/mountain/winter ... port-e.htm
(*)
Understanding Trail Counts - http://alturl.com/n54py http://www.tremblant.ca/mountain/trailmap-e.htm
http://www.tremblant.ca/galleries/webcams/index-e.htm
http://translate.google.com/translate_t ... =fr&tl=en#
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weather/CAQC0360
Forum Index: http://alturl.com/r4cco
Bring Back The Memories...
If you would like to look up dates
you visited Tremblant, GoTo:
Archive, Search Reports by Date: http://tinyurl.com/yktelmu
.