Weather Freaks Only- Conditions Explained?

[T360]

Firstly, we would like to state at the outset that we think stable Winter Weather will be here within the next 48 to 72 hours...hopefully we'll start to see some snow making efforts @ Tremblant within that time frame.

But in the mean-time, for those who are just as fascinated with the weather as we are, here's a look at how our season got delayed...

There can be no doubt that the weather patterns that were predicted in early October have not materialized.

Unfortunately, these were the forecasting models that were used by Tremblant and every other Eastern Ski area to predict opening dates.

This is the early Fall'09 temperature model used to predict seasonal development(base data supplied by NOAA).

Eary '09 Fall Temp Projections.jpg (150.61 KiB) Viewed 4078 times

The reality was altered by the hand of Mother Nature, including, but not limited to the effects of Hurricane Ida, which had a weather disturbing reach of over 2400 KM. Below, you can see the net effect.

Please note: Tremblant is on the Western edge of the "Normal" temperature zone in this model below which is a good sign for a potential conditions recovery.(base data supplied by NOAA)

11.25.09 early Dec. Temperature model based on currently available forecasting data(base data supplied by NOAA).

December 09 Temperature annomoly.jpg (145.65 KiB) Viewed 4079 times

The CFS (Climate Forecasting System) has been steadfast in recent months suggesting abnormally warm conditions over Alaska/Western Canada and cooler than normal temps for the east and southeast sectors of North America for December ,January and Febuary. This might be typical of an El Nino pattern. Here is the latest CFS 2-m temperature outlook:

11.25.09 Weather 2.gif (39.76 KiB) Viewed 4075 times

Conclusion(s):

1) Weather forecasting is an art as much as a science.

2) The above data suggests that despite the warmer than average start to the Winter Weather Patterns, there is a strong possibility of a slightly below average temperature recovery for the Winter of '09/10, Starting with the beginning of December.

3) If #2 becomes reality, it is possible to theorize a more consistent Winter Weather pattern without thaws and retained accumulations of Snow until at least March.

4) GoTo: http://www.theweathernetwork.com/fourte ... k_st_14day
If you look at this link today you will see that the 14 day outlook generated by the Canadian Weather Network supports our conclusions.

5) We are optimists, so if maintaining a Positive Mental Attitude in any way, shape or form will help, then we support that!



Hang in there Snowmigo's ... it's all we can do.

Oh, and by the way, when it does snow, make sure you make every effort possible to get to Tremblant to take advantage of it! ... do not take even one single day for granted...


Links:

http://www.tremblant.ca

http://www.tremblant.ca/mountain/winter ... port-e.htm

http://www.tremblant.ca/galleries/webcams/index-e.htm

http://translate.google.com/translate_t ... =fr&tl=en#

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weather/CAQC0360




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