Trail Count stuck at 58!!
Trail Count stuck at 58!!
Is it just me or has anyone else noticed that the trail count hasnt broke 60 in weeks. Yes I realize that we had a ra*n event that diminished many trails......weeks ago now at this point. Temps have been consistently cold enough for snowmaking around the clock since... Are 36 trails dependant on Natural snow alone.. I am very optimistic we will still have a good season ahead but i dont recall a time where temps have been consistently cold, it is still well within the timeline for snowmaking and no trails have been added??
Re: Trail Count stuck at 58!!
This is an excellent, intelligent question that has probably been in
the thoughts of many Tremblant regular's for the last few days.
Absolute verification can only come from the manager of
Mountain Operations and we would certainly welcome any
Official input, if it was possible.
In the absence of that verification, we have some statistical
data to lead us toward sort of an "educated opinion", see below.
Firstly, you bring up an excellent point about how many trails
are dependent on natural snow.
Obviously, there are a bunch...
Some examples are...
-Buzz
-Emotion
-Windigo
-CBC
-Ryan,Bas,Lower
-Algonquin
-Casades...
to name a few.
Of course, 10 minutes looking at the trail map, and together
we could probably put together a list that would be about 95%
accurate.
How many in total? We will have to build the list, but in the
mean-time, here's another consideration...
Tipping points...
When does a run have enough wear to go closed and how much
natural snow is needed to push it back over to open.
We think 2 of the best examples in this department are Bansai and MCA.
Both these runs were open for about a week, prior to the "Thermal Event"
and since then we've had roughly 15-17 Cm's(according to Official
Snow Report Archives). If it had come all at once, this total could have been
the tipping point that put these 2 back on the open list, however coming
in bit's and bit's, that has not happened yet.
Equally within the "Tipping Points" factors are variable things like,
"which way was the wind blowing". So even if we'd had a single 17 cm
snow fall, how it fell would be the tipping point for many runs,
depending on which sides of the Mountain were favoured and/or
what the wind velocities were, if any, that came with the snow.
Personally, we think that there many be quite a few close on the
tipping point, right now.
We're going to try to do some more homework on this, as time permits,
thinking there may be a way to roughly calculate it as well as the list.
If you gottaminute, feel free to add to the list...
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Crude statistical analysis to determine hypothetical trail count
dependent on Natural snow.
First, take total Skiable acreage, 654, and divide that by the
Snowmaking total acreage possible, 465, to calculate
the percentage of total area that can receive Snowmaking.
465/654 = "x"/100 = 71.101% of total area can receive
Snowmaking.
then....
Factor that % against the total Trail Count @ 95 =
95 x 71.101% = aprox. 67 trails can receive Snowmaking.
So then 95 - 67 = aprox. 28 can not receive Snowmaking..
When working with percentages and Tremblant's trail count,
because our 95 trail count is so close to 100, rounding up a bit
makes it easy to do.
Based on this whacky method, we'll round up to 30 trails,
plus or minus a "fudge factor"(*) of 10% for a range of 27 to 33
trails that are dependent on natural snow.
That isn't too far off the 36 that PowderSC mentions above.
The difference of 6 could easily or somewhat be explained
by the "Tipping Point" theory.
This math model may be full of flaws, so if you are an
Actuarial scientist, please fix it.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
If you got here from the 1/13/11 Conditions report and
you want to back there, click here: http://alturl.com/oczej
cut'n paste link to this article: http://alturl.com/guqq7
If you think this approach is ridiculous, then post your own better idea,
or at least enjoy a good laugh. LOL
(*)
fudge factor
n.
A variable factor or component used in calculations or experiments that allows for a margin of error or produces a desired result.
The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition copyright ©2000 by Houghton Mifflin Company. Updated in 2009. Published by Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
.
the thoughts of many Tremblant regular's for the last few days.
Absolute verification can only come from the manager of
Mountain Operations and we would certainly welcome any
Official input, if it was possible.
In the absence of that verification, we have some statistical
data to lead us toward sort of an "educated opinion", see below.
Firstly, you bring up an excellent point about how many trails
are dependent on natural snow.
Obviously, there are a bunch...
Some examples are...
-Buzz
-Emotion
-Windigo
-CBC
-Ryan,Bas,Lower
-Algonquin
-Casades...
to name a few.
Of course, 10 minutes looking at the trail map, and together
we could probably put together a list that would be about 95%
accurate.
How many in total? We will have to build the list, but in the
mean-time, here's another consideration...
Tipping points...
When does a run have enough wear to go closed and how much
natural snow is needed to push it back over to open.
We think 2 of the best examples in this department are Bansai and MCA.
Both these runs were open for about a week, prior to the "Thermal Event"
and since then we've had roughly 15-17 Cm's(according to Official
Snow Report Archives). If it had come all at once, this total could have been
the tipping point that put these 2 back on the open list, however coming
in bit's and bit's, that has not happened yet.
Equally within the "Tipping Points" factors are variable things like,
"which way was the wind blowing". So even if we'd had a single 17 cm
snow fall, how it fell would be the tipping point for many runs,
depending on which sides of the Mountain were favoured and/or
what the wind velocities were, if any, that came with the snow.
Personally, we think that there many be quite a few close on the
tipping point, right now.
We're going to try to do some more homework on this, as time permits,
thinking there may be a way to roughly calculate it as well as the list.
If you gottaminute, feel free to add to the list...
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Crude statistical analysis to determine hypothetical trail count
dependent on Natural snow.
First, take total Skiable acreage, 654, and divide that by the
Snowmaking total acreage possible, 465, to calculate
the percentage of total area that can receive Snowmaking.
465/654 = "x"/100 = 71.101% of total area can receive
Snowmaking.
then....
Factor that % against the total Trail Count @ 95 =
95 x 71.101% = aprox. 67 trails can receive Snowmaking.
So then 95 - 67 = aprox. 28 can not receive Snowmaking..
When working with percentages and Tremblant's trail count,
because our 95 trail count is so close to 100, rounding up a bit
makes it easy to do.
Based on this whacky method, we'll round up to 30 trails,
plus or minus a "fudge factor"(*) of 10% for a range of 27 to 33
trails that are dependent on natural snow.
That isn't too far off the 36 that PowderSC mentions above.
The difference of 6 could easily or somewhat be explained
by the "Tipping Point" theory.
This math model may be full of flaws, so if you are an
Actuarial scientist, please fix it.
- Screenshot Courtesy of www.tremblant.ca
- Picture 12.jpg (201.57 KiB) Viewed 6098 times
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
If you got here from the 1/13/11 Conditions report and
you want to back there, click here: http://alturl.com/oczej
cut'n paste link to this article: http://alturl.com/guqq7
If you think this approach is ridiculous, then post your own better idea,
or at least enjoy a good laugh. LOL
(*)
fudge factor
n.
A variable factor or component used in calculations or experiments that allows for a margin of error or produces a desired result.
The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition copyright ©2000 by Houghton Mifflin Company. Updated in 2009. Published by Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
.
The Tremblant360.com Team
Re: Trail Count stuck at 58!!
Well i did get a good laugh at it anyways regardless of how close it is or not. I do realize there is limitations to the amount of snow Trembalnt can blow on certain trails and many different factors come into play as mentioned.. I will always find snow somewhere to ride on that mountain and will not complain with the conditions i have been on thus far in the season. having said this, i will still question why they cant seem to slowly increase the trail count, even if minimal. Its no secret SMT has had some financial woes in the recent past, i am just hoping they are not sacrificing the snowmaking and overall trail maintenance because of this. If we could just get a few good dumps to get the ball rolling again, this wouldnt even be a post!